Organized violence, 1989–2018 and peace agreements
| Author | Stina Högbladh,Therése Pettersson,Magnus Öberg |
| Published date | 01 July 2019 |
| Date | 01 July 2019 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343319856046 |
| Subject Matter | Special Data Features |
Special Data Feature
Organized violence, 1989–2018
and peace agreements
There
´se Pettersson
Stina Ho
¨gbladh
Magnus O
¨berg
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Abstract
This article reports on trends in organized violence and peace agreements collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data
Program (UCDP). The number of fatalities in organized violence decreased for the fourth consecutive year, to reach
the lowest level since 2012. In 2018, UCDP recorded almost 76,000 deaths: a decrease of 20% compared to 2017,
and 43% compared to the latest peak in 2014. State-based armed conflict drives this downward trend in organized
violence, with Syria accounting for much of the change. The number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also
dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012. In contrast, non-state conflict remained on a high level. The
general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active
conflicts. In fact, the world has seen a new peak in the number of conflicts after 2014, matched only by the number
of conflicts in the early 1990s. In 1991, the peak in the number of armed conflicts corresponded with a similar peak
in the number of signed peace agreements. This was followed by a decrease in the number of conflicts in the late
1990s and early 2000s. However, the most recent rise in armed conflicts has not been matched by a similar rise in the
number of peace agreements. Two circumstances that characterize the recent rise in conflicts have also been found to
make conflicts harder to solve: explicit religious claims and high levels of internationalization.
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, peace agreements, war
Organized violence 1989–2018
1
In 2018, the number of fatalities in organized violence
decreased for the fourth consecutive year, now being at
the lowest level since 2012. Figure 1 shows that UCDP
recorded almost 76,000 deaths in 2018: a decrease of
20% compared to 2017, and 43% compared to the latest
peak in 2014. As in most years, state-based conflict
drives this trend. The de-escalation of violence in Syria
and Iraq was the primary cause of this decrease. The
number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also
dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012.
In contrast, non-state conflict continued on a high level.
2
Corresponding author:
therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se
1
UCDP collectsdata on state-based armed conflict,non-state conflict,
and one-sidedviolence. Thecategories are mutuallyexclusive and can be
aggregated as ‘organized violence’. They also share the same intensity
cut-off for inclusion – 25 fatalitiesin a calendar year.
2
State-based armed conflict involves violence where at least one of
the parties is the government of a state, meaning violence between
two states or violence between the government and a rebel group.
Non-state conflict is the use of armed force between two organized
groups, such as rebel groups or ethnic groups, neither of which is the
government of a state. One-sided violence contains violence by the
government of a state or by a formally organized group t argeting
unarmed civilians. For full definitions of all key concepts, see the
Online appendix. A major change in the definitions since last year
is the allowance of external state support in non-state conflict,
discussed in detail in the Online appendix.
Journal of Peace Research
2019, Vol. 56(4) 589–603
ªThe Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343319856046
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