Organized violence, 1989–2019
| Author | Therése Pettersson,Magnus Öberg |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343320934986 |
| Published date | 01 July 2020 |
| Date | 01 July 2020 |
| Subject Matter | Special Data Feature |
Special Data Feature
Organized violence, 1989–2019
There
´se Pettersson & Magnus O
¨berg
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Abstract
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to
its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is
countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their
efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200
fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the
globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number
of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019,
including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In
the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in
organized violence.
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, transnational jihadist, war
Organized violence 1989–2019
1
UCDP data show several significant events for organized
violence in 2019. The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria
and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities to its lowest
level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011,
illustrated in Figure 1 and Table I. However, this de-
escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in
Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have
relocated their efforts there. Pushing into new territories,
and continuing to spread terror with complex suicide
attacks, IS still dominated the trend in organized violence,
despite being severely weakened by large-scale offensives.
Furthermore,violence has continued to increase in Afgha-
nistan, in spite of attempts at negotiating peace, and the
country witnessed its bloodiest year since the end of the
Soviet intervention in 1989. UCDP recorded more than
31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts
for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the
globe. Table I shows that Afghanistan is the third most
conflict-affected country in terms of total fatalities in the
1989–2019 period, after Rwanda and Syria.
The first section of this article presents recent trends
in three types of organized violence, focusing particularly
on events in 2019 and their impact on the landscape of
organized violence. In the second section, we look closer
at the recent expansion of transnational groups, such as
IS, al-Qaida, and their affiliates.
State-based conflict 1946–2019
In 2019, UCDP recorded 54 active state-based conflicts
– the highest number in the post-1946 period – match-
ing the previous peak year of 2016.
2
This is an increase
by two compared to 2018. Africa seems to be driving this
Corresponding author:
therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se
1
UCDP collectsdata on state-based armed conflict,non-state conflict,
and one-sided violence. The categories are mutually exclusiveand can
be aggregated as ‘organized violence’. They also share the same
intensity cutoff for inclusion – 25 fatalities in a calendar year.
2
Since the end of World War II, 639 dyads have been active in 290
conflicts in 158 locations. Corresponding numbers for the 1989–
2019 period are 397 dyads in 183 conflicts in 96 locations. See
Online appendix for definitions.
Journal of Peace Research
2020, Vol. 57(4) 597–613
ªThe Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343320934986
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recent trend with 25 active conflicts, of which eight are
new or restarted.
3
Figure 2 shows that this is Africa’s
highest number of conflicts in the post-1946 period.
IS continued to be involved in many conflicts around
the world, despite the fall of the last remnants of its
caliphate in Iraq and Syria in March 2019. IS challenged
the governments of 16 different countries in 2019, an
increase by four from 2018. All of these four were located
in Africa.
The number of interstate conflicts continued to be
low; the two conflicts recorded in 2018 were also active
in 2019: Iran–Israel and India–Pakistan. However,
Figure 3 shows that the number of intrastate conflicts
Table I. The ten most conflict-affected countries in terms of fatalities, 1989–2019
Country
Total no. of fatalities
1989–2019
Fatalities in
state-based conflict
Fatalities in
non-state conflict
Fatalities in
one-sided violence
Rwanda 515,793 6,752 11 509,030
Syria 361,193 302,583 47,305 11,305
Afghanistan 258,746 243,210 4,830 10,706
Ethiopia 178,779 167,551 7,801 3,427
Iraq 122,560 100,246 3,141 19,173
DR Congo (Zaire) 116,422 28,693 17,269 70,460
Sudan 93,980 51,889 22,108 19,983
Sri Lanka 65,716 61,298 648 3,770
Nigeria 59,434 18,527 24,419 16,488
India 58,690 40,055 6,050 12,585
Other countries 710,997 457,073 119,086 134,838
Total 2,542,310 1,477,877 252,668 811,765
Figure 1. Fatalities in organized violence by type, 1989–2019
3
Mozambique (Islamic State), Somalia (Islamic State), and Burkina
Faso (Islamic State) recorded new conflicts, whereas conflict restarted
in Burundi (government), Cameroon (Islamic State), Libya
(government), Angola (Cabinda), and Ethiopia (government).
598 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 57(4)
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