Organized violence 1989–2021 and drone warfare
| Author | Shawn Davies,Therése Pettersson,Magnus Öberg |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221108428 |
| Published date | 01 July 2022 |
| Date | 01 July 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Special Data Features |
Special Data Features
Organized violence 1989–2021
and drone warfare
Shawn Davies
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
There
´se Pettersson
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Magnus O
¨berg
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Abstract
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed between 2014 and
2019, was decisively reversed in 2021as fatalities increased significantly. UCDP registered more than 119,100deaths in
organized violence in 2021, a 46% increase from the previous year. The increase was largely driven by escalating
conflicts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. Fatalities increased in all three categoriesof organized violence, despite a
decrease in the number of active state-based conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence
against civilians. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2021, a decrease by two compared to the previous year.
Five of the conflictswere active at the intensity of war, the lowestnumber of wars since 2010. Violencein 2021 was thus
concentrated to fewer but bloodier conflicts. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have
become increasingly important features of modern conflicts, and the trend in their usage is discussed in the special
feature section. UAV usage has since 2019 dispersed among a significant larger number of actors, even as the down-
scaling in the involvement of the United States in the war on terror has led to a decrease in drone-related fatalities.
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, drone, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, war
Organized violence 1989–2021
1
The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized
violence globally, witnessed every year between the latest
peak in 2014 up until 2019, was decisively reversed in
2021. UCDP registered just over 119,100 deaths in
organized violence in 2021, a 46% increase from the
81,700 recorded the year before. In 2021, state-based
conflicts resulted in nearly 84,000 battle-related deaths,
non-state conflicts in over 25,000, and one-sided vio-
lence caused at least 10,000 fatalities. The level of vio-
lence approaches the latest peak in 2014–15, but is still
below the levels recorded then.
2
Figure 1 shows that
while the number of fatalities increased in all categories
Corresponding author:
therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se
1
UCDP collects data on state-based armed conflict, non-state
conflict, and one-sided violence. The categories are mutually
exclusive and can be aggregated as ‘organized violence’. They also
share the same intensity cut-off for inclusion – 25 fatalities in a
calendar year. Appendices 1, 2, and 3 list the active conflicts in
2021. See Online appendix for definitions.
2
UCDP recorded 148,236 fatalities in organized violence in 2014,
and 131,349 in 2015.
Journal of Peace Research
2022, Vol. 59(4) 593–610
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433221108428
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of organized violence in 2021, compared to 2020, the
largest change occurred in the state-based category. This
increase occurred despite a decline in both the number of
active state-based conflicts and the number of actors
carrying out one-sided violence against civilians. Vio-
lence in 2021 was thus concentrated in fewer but blood-
ier conflicts. Both the number of conflicts and the
number of fatalities increased slightly in non-state
violence.
The upward trend in fatalities was mainly driven by
escalating violence in three wars: those over government
power in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. All three
were active at the level of war in in 2020, meaning that
they caused at least 1,000 battle-related deaths, but
intensified dramatically in 2021 due to large-scale
offensives.
Recent years have seen Africa overtake the Middle
East in driving the trend in organized violence. Com-
pletely dominant in one-sided violence, and the location
of almost half of all state-based armed conflicts in the
world, Africa witnessed its bloodiest year since the
Ethiopia–Eritrea war in 1999–2000.
3
Despite this, Asia
was the worst hit region in 2021, with resurgent violence
in Afghanistan outpacing any other area.
The first section of this article presents recent trends
in three types of organized violence, focusing particularly
on events in 2021. The second section focuses on the use
of armed drones, highlighting how UCDP events data
can be used to explore an influential feature of many
conflicts in the 21st century. All three of the most active
state-based conflicts mentioned above are areas where
the use of UAVs has played an important role in how
these conflicts have developed.
State-based armed conflict 1946–2021
UCDP documented a decrease in the number of state-
based armed conflicts in 2021, after both 2019 and 2020
had set new record highs for active conflicts in the post-
1946 period.
4
The decrease in 2021 was modest, how-
ever, from 56 state-based armed conflicts active in 2020,
to 54 active in 2021. The number of state-based armed
conflicts has remained at a historically high level since
2015, with 52–56 state-based armed conflicts recorded
annually since then. This is high compared to the 31–39
annual conflicts recorded between 2000 and 2013.
In total, UCDP recorded nearly 84,000 battle-related
deaths in state-based armed conflict in 2021, compared
Figure 1. Fatalities in organized violence by type, 1989–2021
3
The continent saw about 31,000 fatalities in 2021, more than the
24,200 killed in 2014, which was previously the most violent year of
the past two decades.
4
Since the end of World War II, 658 dyads have been active in 294
conflicts in 160 locations. Corresponding numbers for the 1989–
2021 period are 418 dyads in 190 conflicts in 99 locations. See
Online appendix for definitions.
594 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 59(4)
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