Organized violence 1989–2022, and the return of conflict between states
| Published date | 01 July 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231185169 |
| Author | Shawn Davies,Therése Pettersson,Magnus Öberg |
| Date | 01 July 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Special Data Features |
Special Data Features
Organized violence 1989–2022, and
the return of conflict between states
Shawn Davies
There
´se Pettersson
Magnus O
¨berg
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Abstract
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP). In 2022, fatalities from organized violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the previous year,
from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in 2022, making 2022 the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
The increase was driven by two, particularly deadly, state-based armed conflicts: the Russia–Ukraine war, and the war
in Ethiopia against TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front). With more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities
respectively, these are the two most deadly state-based conflict-years recorded in the post-1989 period. The Russian
invasion of Ukraine is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years, and the first interstate armed conflict since World
War II where a major power in the international system seeks both territorial gains for itself and the subjugation of
another state through regime change. We have witnessed an emerging trend of increased conflict between states in
the last decade, including cases where major powers support opposite sides in internationalized intrastate conflict.
UCDP recorded 55 active state-based armed conflicts in 2022, an increase of one compared to the previous year.
Eight of these conflicts reached the level of war. While the fatalities caused by non-state conflict decreased somewhat
when compared to 2021, the number of non-state conflicts, as well as both the number of civilians killed in one-sided
violence and the number of actors carrying out such violence, increased in 2022.
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, interstate rivalry, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, war
Organized violence 1989–2022
1
In 2022, the number of fatalities in organized violence
saw a continuation of the steep increase recorded since
2020. Figure 1 shows that total fatalities in organized
violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the
previous year, from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in
2022. 2022 was thus the most violent year recorded
since the Rwandan genocide in 1994, with almost three
times the number of fatalities since the numbers started
to climb in 2019. The increase in 2022, just as in 2021,
was mainly due to a small number of very deadly state-
based conflicts, in particular the Ethiopian intrastate
conflict over government and the Russia–Ukraine inter-
state conflict. In the context of both these conflicts,
significant one-sided violence targeting civilians has also
occurred, mainly perpetrated by the Ethiopian, Eritrean,
and Russian governments. Together, one-sided violence
in Ethiopia and Ukraine constituted about one-quarter
Corresponding author:
therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se
1
UCDP collects data on state-based armed conflict, non-state
conflict, and one-sided violence. The categories are mutually
exclusive and can be aggregated as ‘organized violence’. They also
share the same intensity cut-off for inclusion – 25 fatalities in a
calendar year. Appendices 1, 2, and 3 list the active conflicts in
2022. See Online appendix for definitions.
Journal of Peace Research
2023, Vol. 60(4) 691–708
ªThe Author(s) 2023
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433231185169
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of all one-sided violence perpetrated globally, while the
conflicts were responsible for 89% of all recorded state-
based battle-related deaths.
While fatalities increased in both the state-based and
one-sided categories of violence, non-state fatalities
decreased. The number of state-based and non-state con-
flicts, as well as the number of actors perpetrating one-
sided violence, increased in 2022 compared to 2021. On
a positive note, violence in Asia and the Middle East
decreased in 2022, as the two most violent conflicts in
2021, the conflicts over government in Yemen and
Afghanistan, saw significant de-escalation. With only
around 6,000 fatalities each in 2022, Asia and the Mid-
dle East have gone from being the most violent regions in
2021, to the least violent regions in 2022, contributing
to considerable changes in the geographical pattern of
violence in 2022 compared to previous years.
The first section of this article presents recent trends
in the three types of organized violence, focusing par-
ticularly on events in 2022. The second section focuses
on several recent trends which point to increased ten-
sion between states in the international system, includ-
ing the first interstate war in 20 years and a rising
number of cases of external states granting secondary
warring support to non-state actors fighting against
governments.
State-based armed conflict
Fatalities in state-based armed conflicts increased mark-
edly from 2021, reaching the highest levels recorded by
the UCDP in the post-1989 period. In total, UCDP
recorded over 200,000 battle-related deaths in 2022,
more than double the 84,000 recorded in 2021. This
means that the death toll in state-based conflicts has
almost quadrupled since 2020, when we recorded
54,000 battle-related deaths. This increase occurred
despite considerable de-escalation in the two most
deadly conflicts in 2021, the conflicts over government
in Afghanistan and Yemen. Two conflicts, the interstate
conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict
over government in Ethiopia, were responsible for
about 89% of all recorded battle-related deaths in
2022, with more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities,
respectively. Despite significant difficulty related to the
systematic collection of information on specific lethal
events in both Ukraine and Ethiopia in 2022, the two
Figure 1. Organized violence by type of violence, 1989–2022
692 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 60(4)
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