Paradigm shift
| Date | 01 December 2016 |
| Author | Mike Finn |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905816680416 |
| Published date | 01 December 2016 |
22 POLITICAL INSIGHT • DECEMBER 2016
The outcome of the EU
referendum on 23 June came
as a shock to most academics,
especially those working in
political studies. Though some predicted
privately, and in a few cases publicly,
that the Leave campaign would win, the
consensus view was represented by the
Political Studies’ Association’s expert survey
– a comfortable ten-point margin of victory
for Remain. It was spectacularly wrong.
The previous year, the PSA commissioned
a similar survey of expert opinion to predict
the outcome of the 2015 General Election.
The survey predicted a tight outcome,
with academics reckoning that Labour
would emerge the largest party in a hung
Parliament. The Conservatives won a
majority instead, winning around 60 seats
more than the academic consensus had
predicted.
The confidence of academics about the
referendum outcome was staggering. 87
per cent of academics said that Remain
was the most likely to win; a mere 7 per
cent thought Leave more likely, and the
remainder claimed an equal chance for
both outcomes. The only comfort for
academics was that journalists were even
more out of touch than they were – 97 per
cent of hacks polled felt that Remain would
be the public’s final verdict.
Paradigm
shift
The 2015 General Election
and the European Union
referendum results came as a
surprise to many academics.
Mike Finn investigates why our
predictions are so increasingly
misplaced.
Political Insight December 2016.indd 22 31/10/2016 14:28
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