A paradigm Shift?
| Published date | 01 December 2016 |
| Date | 01 December 2016 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905816680423 |
DECEMBER 2016 • POLITICAL INSIGHT 3
These are chastening times for
professional watchers of politics.
Who would have forecast a
Conservative victory in the 2015
General Election? Or the UK voting for
Brexit? Or Donald Trump becoming the
Republican nominee for president?
The list of unexpected political events
goes on. Pollsters are struggling to pick
up a febrile public mood. Academics, too,
have found it difficult to predict what could
happen next in an increasingly changeable
world.
This issue’s cover feature looks at
another remarkable contemporary
phenomenon: the rise of Jeremy Corbyn.
Political commentators have spent months
dismissing the Labour leader, and yet he
won another huge victory at September’s
party conference.
So are the pundits once again
underestimating the public? Tim Bale
examines the evidence and finds that
while Corbyn does have support among
Labour party members, he will struggle to
convince the wide electorate.
In the run-up to June’s Brexit referendum,
Michael Gove declared that “people in this
country have had enough of experts”. Well,
certainly experts have struggled to keep up
with the people. Few in the political studies
community foresaw that the UK would vote
to leave the EU.
Reflecting on the demands placed on
academics to predict the political future,
Mike Finn suggests that we need to
acknowledge that the paradigm of politics
– in Britain and elsewhere – has shifted.
Past performance is no longer an accurate
guide to future events.
Nowhere was this new political paradigm
more in evidence than the US presidential
election. Donald Trump ran on an overtly
populist ticket, promising whatever he
believed voters wanted to hear. Similar
trends are evident in Europe, from the
National Front in France to Ukip. Jane Suiter
examines the rise of “post-truth” politics and
asks what it could mean for the future.
There is no doubt about the dominant
issue in UK politics: Brexit. Prime Minister
Theresa May has said that “Brexit means
Brexit” – but what does Brexit mean? David
Phinnemore explores the options for the
UK – and the European Union – in the wake
of the dramatic referendum result.
As the UK prepares for Brexit, Benjamin D.
Hennig maps out Britain’s complex trading
relations with the rest of the European
Union in the regular In Focus slot.
Of course, not all of the UK voted to
leave the EU. Both Scotland and Northern
Ireland registered significant majorities for
“remain”, putting the thorny question of
the UK’s constitutional set-up back on the
political agenda. Federalism is one solution
that has been mooted for the UK. What
does federalism mean? And could it work in
Britain? Paolo Dardanelli and John Kincaid
investigate.
At Westminster, the Conservatives
pledged to increase the number of women
in Parliament, and in positions of power.
Tim Heppell assesses how David Cameron,
and his successor Theresa May, have fared –
and finds mixed results.
Ms May has promised a kinder, more
inclusive politics – but has also pledged
to cut public spending to a record low.
Danny Dorling argues that the only way to
a new politics is through public investment,
taxation and changes in our voting system.
Elsewhere, Chris Raymond argues that
British politics is no longer a two-party, and
Hartwig Pautz and Francis Stuart report on
innovative research into the quality of work
in the UK today.
Dion Curry reports from Canada, where
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is finding
that the business of government is more
difficult than courting the international
media.
At home and abroad, 2017 is shaping
up to be a very interesting year indeed.
But before 2016 ends, I want to take the
opportunity to thank you all for your
continuing support. If you would like to
join the debates or contribute to
Political
Insight
get in touch or visit www.psa.ac.uk/
insight-plus.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
(editor@politicalinsightmagazine.com)
A paradigm
Shift?
Political Insight December 2016.indd 3 31/10/2016 14:28
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