Policing the Remnants of War
| DOI | 10.1177/00223433030405001 |
| Date | 01 September 2003 |
| Published date | 01 September 2003 |
| Author | John Mueller |
| Subject Matter | Other |
507
Introduction
In some very important respects, the insti-
tution of war is clearly in decline. Certain
standard, indeed classic, varieties of war –
particularly major war or wars among
developed countries – have become so rare
and unlikely that they could well be con-
sidered to be obsolescent, if not obsolete.
Also in notable decline, it appears, are con-
ventional war more generally, conventional
civil war, colonial war, and ideological civil
war.1
Moreover, much, but not all, of what
remains of war, sometimes labeled ‘new war’,
‘ethnic conflict’, or, most grandly, ‘clashes of
civilizations’, is more nearly opportunistic
predation waged by packs – often remark-
ably small ones – of criminals, bandits, and
thugs. To a substantial and perhaps increas-
ing degree, then, warfare has been reduced to
its remnants – or dregs – and thugs are the
residual combatants. And history and recent
experience suggest that much of this could
be, and perhaps is being, reduced or sub-
stantially eliminated by disciplined police
and military forces. The key to dealing with
these wars lies more with the development of
competent domestic governments than with
the application of international policing.
This article explores these themes.
© 2003 Journal of Peace Research,
vol. 40, no. 5, 2003, pp. 507–518
Sage Publications (London, Thousand Oaks, CA
and New Delhi) www.sagepublications.com
[0022-3433(200309)40:5; 507–518; 035827]
Policing the Remnants of War*
JOHN MUELLER
Department of Political Science, Ohio State University
Certain standard, indeed classic, varieties of war have become so rare and unlikely that they could well
be considered to be obsolescent, if not obsolete. Moreover, much, but not all, of what remains of war
is substantially opportunistic predation waged by packs of criminals, bandits, and thugs who engage in
warfare in much the same way as they often did in medieval and early modern Europe: as mercenaries
recruited or dragooned by weak (or even desperate) state governments or as warlord gangs developed
within failed or weak states. Much of this warfare could be reduced or substantially eliminated by dis-
ciplined police and military forces and, in their new era of essential consensus in the wake of the Cold
War, the developed countries could create mechanisms for policing civil warfare. However, they are
likely to do so with any sort of reliability only where their interests seem importantly engaged or where
they manage to become self-entrapped. Rather, the key lies in the establishment of competent domes-
tic military and policing forces, tracing a process Europe went through in the middle of the last mil-
lennium. Indeed, much of the civil warfare that persists in the world today is a function of the extent
to which inadequate governments exist. Of late, there seems to have been an increase in the number
of countries led by effective people who, instead of looting and dissipating their country’s resources,
appear to be dedicated to adopting policies that will further its orderly development. Thus, while far
from certain, a further (or continuing) decline in a most common remaining kind of war does seem to
be an entirely reasonable prospect.
* Correspondence: bbbb@osu.edu.
1For an assessment of this process, see Mueller (1989,
1995: chs. 8–9). See also Mueller (forthcoming).
COUNTER-
POINT
01 JPR 40-5 Mueller (JB/D) 28/7/03 3:40 pm Page 507
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