Predicting rapist type based on crime-scene violence, interpersonal involvement, and criminal sophistication in U.S. stranger rape cases
| Author | Indy SK Mellink,Glynis Bogaard,Elizabeth L Jeglic |
| Published date | 01 March 2022 |
| Date | 01 March 2022 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/14613557211036564 |
| Subject Matter | Original Research Articles |
Predicting rapist type based on
crime-scene violence, interpersonal
involvement, and criminal sophistication
in U.S. stranger rape cases
Indy SK Mellink
John Jay College of Criminal Justice, USA
Elizabeth L Jeglic
John Jay College of Criminal Justice, USA
Glynis Bogaard
Maastricht University, Netherlands
Abstract
Stranger rape cases are one of the most difficult sexual assault crimes to solve for law enforcement. This study
aimed to compare crime-scene characteristics between serial rapists and single-victim rapists in stranger rape
cases and build a predictive model to predict rapist type. An archival database of released sex offenders included
385 who committed stranger rapes. Of those, 244 were single-victim rapists and 141 were serial rapists. The
single-victim rapists were significantly m ore likely t o have viole ntly th emed crime-scene characteristics than serial
rapists, whereas serial rapists were significantly more likely than single-victim rapists to engage in criminally
sophisticated behavior and induce participation from their victims. A logistic regression using 10 crime-scene
characteristics correctly identified 75.8% of cases as perpetrated by either single-victim or serial rapists. The
most significant predictors of rapist type were whether the offender digitally penetrated their victim, whether
the offender choked their victim, whether they were at a new/unknown location or whether they threatened
their victim. The implications of these results are that they benefit law enforcement in the investigation of stran-
ger rape cases by potentially narrowing down their suspect pool and add to the classification of stranger rapists in
offender profiling literature.
Keywords
Stranger rape, serial rapist, single-victim rapist, offender profiling
Submitted 5 May 2021, accepted 8 Jul 2021
Introduction
Sexual violence is a serious public health concern in the United
States. One in every six American women has been the victim
of attempted or completed rape in her lifetime (Department of
Justice, 2018). There appears to be a substantial need to better
understand those who commit sexual assault. This will allow
us to increase apprehension rates.
In an ideal world, the process of investigating crimes and
finding offenders would be based on hard physical
Corresponding author:
Elizabeth L. Jeglic, 524 Department of Psychology, John JayCollege, West
59th Street, New York, NY 10019, USA.
Email: ejeglic@jjay.cuny.edu
Original Research Article
International Journal of
Police Science & Management
2022, Vol. 24(1) 53–65
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/14613557211036564
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