Presidential Frontrunners: Strategies of Success and Failure of the Early Leaders in the Presidential Selection Process
| Published date | 01 October 1983 |
| Date | 01 October 1983 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9256.1983.tb00081.x |
| Subject Matter | Article |
Presidential Frontrunners:
Failure
of
the Early Leaders in the Presidential Selection Process
Strategies
of
Success and
27
PRESIDENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS:
STRATEGIES
OF
SUCCESS AND FAILURE
OF
THE EARLY
LEADERS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION PROCESS
MICHAEL
A
GENOVESE
With
each passing presidential election,
the
campaign period seems to start earlier
At
present, active campaigning starts over a year before the
first
primary
and earlier.
is held. The presidential campaign is quickly becoming a full-time ritual. Unlike
parliamentary systems where an election might be held at almost any time, in the United
States, the set quadrennial election schedule allows
for
long range planning by presi-
dential hopefuls (Wayne, 1980; Watson, 1980). Politicians, the press, and the public
begin
to
play the 'frontrunner game' early in the process, estimating
who
the likely
nominees will be, and ranking the Competition as 'possibles', 'unlikelies', and 'dark
horses'. Position attained
in
this
informal ranking system dictates,
in
part, strategy
in
the campaign. For example, a dark horse candidate may have to attract attention
by dramatic pronouncements and by taking a chance. By contrast, the frontrunners may
try
to
'play
it
safe', rely on
this
reputation and play the 'statesman' role.
their strategy in attempting to gain the nomination. In the past, the common belief was
that
the party
bosses
would gather
in
a 'smoke-filled room'
to
choose the party's
standard bearer. However accurate that image may have been, it
is
no longer true.
With
the proliferation
of
presidential primaries, and with the increased importance
of
the
media (especially television)
in
focusing
on
candidates, the party bosses
no
longer
exercise control over the nomination process.
NOW,
a candidate
must
go 'to
the
people'
through
the elaborate primary system (Lucy, 1973).
'Presidential primaries have transformed the nominating process into a vast popularity
contest where the popular favourite
-
the winner of the primaries, the public
opinion
poll leader, and the front-cover political hero of
the
pictorial magazines
-
sweeps all
rivals aside and
wins
the nomination
on
the first ballot (Davis, 1967,
p.247).
The rise
of
the primaries and increased importance
of
the media have seemingly
placed a premium
on
being the early leader
in
the
presidential sweepstakes.
carry
the
early leadership through the
first
few primaries, one may be able to knock
the other contenders
out
of
the race before they can
even get
their campaigns off the
ground.
Thus,
in
the
1980 Republican race, the first
few
primaries eliminated most
of
the 'also-rans' and focused attention on a narrow field of candidates. The early leader,
Reagan, was able to maintain
high
media coverage and continue
to
be considered the
'man
to
beat'.
leading candidate can
shun
controversial positions,
is
granted automatic media attention,
and can attract voters and supporters who like to
go
with a winner. By the same token,
the leader is under the most powerful microscope.
One
mistake (e.g. George Romney's
'brainwash' statement
in
1968)
may get full, even exaggerated media coverage. Also,
even
if
the leader
wins
a primary, if he does
not
win
by a
big
enough margin (Muskie
in
the 1972
New
Hampshire Primary) the media may treat
it
as a defeat. With these mixed
variables, why
do
the contenders scramble for the early lead?
The emergence of one candidate from the pack of presidential aspirants takes place
during what is called 'the invisible primary', the period between one election and the
beginning of
the
next primary season.
An
incumbent first-term
President
almost automa-
tically becomes his party's frontrunner.
He
then may employ the 'Rose Garden' strategy
(do
not overtly campaign; act 'presidential'; act 'above politics') and conduct
a
very
low-key campaign.
available
to
them
in optimizing their chances
of
winning re-nomination and re-election.
Presidents have large
sums
of
money
in
the form of grants and federal projects that can
and do
-
go to key cities and states. The incumbent always attracts a great deal
of
media attention and
this
can
be
exploited by key dramatic acts (e.g.
Nixon's
trip
to
Of
late, the changing nature of the selection process has forced candidates
to
alter
As
James W.Davis has written,
If
one can
But
being the early frontrunner
is
somewhat of a mixed blessing. The
Beyond a'Rose Garden'strategy, incumbents have a variety of options
-
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