Professional political pollsters as a liberal democratic epistemic community: Revisiting transformations of Indonesian political pollsters in the last decade of the Soeharto and post-Soeharto eras
| Author | Nyarwi Ahmad,Eriyanto Eriyanto |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20578911221129790 |
| Published date | 01 March 2023 |
| Date | 01 March 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Southeast Asia |
Professional political pollsters
as a liberal democratic
epistemic community:
Revisiting transformations of
Indonesian political pollsters in
the last decade of the Soeharto
and post-Soeharto eras
Nyarwi Ahmad
University of Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Eriyanto Eriyanto
University of Indonesia, Indonesia
Abstract
This article proposes the notion of the professional political pollster as a liberal democratic epi-
stemic community. It examines transformations of Indonesian political pollster organisations in the
last decade of the Soeharto era and in the post-Soeharto era. The findings extracted from the aca-
demic and mainstream media reports and the in-depth interview data collected from seven polit-
ical pollsters associated with prominent Indonesian polling organisations are as follows. In the last
decade of the Soeharto era, professional political pollsters visibly evolved but played less significant
roles in Indonesian politics. As the Soeharto regime collapsed, they gradually had more substantial
roles in Indonesian electoral politics and took shape as a robust and convergent liberal democratic
epistemic community. After Indonesia’s 2004 presidential election, most of them not only turned
into political consultants but also engaged in a pollster war. This made them take shape as not only
a fragile but also a divergent liberal democratic epistemic community. A set of recommendations is
proposed to tackle this problem.
Corresponding author:
Nyarwi Ahmad, Communication Science, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta,
Indonesia.
Email: nyarwiahmad@ugm.ac.id
Southeast Asia
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2023, Vol. 8(1) 141–163
© The Author(s) 2022
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/20578911221129790
journals.sagepub.com/home/acp
Keywords
epistemic community, Indonesia, liberal democracy, new order Soeha rto, political pollster, post-
Soeharto
Introduction
It has been argued that in liberal democratic countries, political pollsters play crucial roles in politics
and democracy (Jacobs and Shapiro, 2005; Shapiro, 2011). They have even been considered as
champions of liberal democracy (Dion, 1962: 571). While the roles of political pollsters in politics
and democracy have been robustly examined within contexts of US and UK politics (e.g. Berinsky,
2004; Cantrell, 1992; Diamond, 2010; Farrell et al., 2001; Prosser and Mellon, 2018), transforma-
tions of Indonesian political pollsters in the last decade of Soeharto rule and the post-Soeharto era,
as a liberal democratic epistemic community, have been under-researched.
This article argues that a specific study focusing on this issue is important. The reasons are as
follows. Some authors have indicated that there have been liberal epistemic communities in
Indonesia. For example, Mallarangeng (2000), Muzakki (2007) and Asyaukanie (2009) highlighted
that since the mid-1980s, liberal economic and Islamic epistemic communities have evolved in this
country.
1
Such liberal democratic epistemic communities are even seen as having the capability to
be principal agents in formulating a proper model of democracy that accords with the characteristics
of Indonesian society (Santoso et al., 2010). However, while subsequent authors voiced that polit-
ical pollsters had played substantial roles in advocating for some democratic values, such as repre-
senting the people’s voice and ensuring election integrity and transparency (Mietzner, 2009;
Qodari, 2010; Trihartono, 2013, 2014; Ufen, 2010), knowledge regarding the ways these pollsters
evolved as a liberal democratic epistemic community in the last decade of Soeharto’s rule and the
post-Soeharto era has been under-developed.
In consideration of this condition, this article proposes the notion of professional political poll-
sters as a liberal democratic epistemic community. Following this, it attempts to evaluate the fol-
lowing question. How did Indonesian political pollsters evolve as a liberal democratic epistemic
community in the last decade of the Soeharto and the post-Soeharto era? Focusing on this a ques-
tion, this article proceeds as follows. The first section discusses the relationships between political
pollsters and democracy. The second section clarifies the nature of professional political pollsters
and considers them as a liberal democratic epistemic community. The third section outlines the
research method and materials. The fourth, fifth and sixth sections, respectively, delineate transfor-
mations of Indonesian political pollsters in the last decade of the Soeharto era, after the downfall of
the Soeharto regime and after Indonesia’s 2004 presidential election. The last section discusses such
transformations and concludes.
Political pollsters and democracy
Political pollsters exist across the globe. It has been argued that within the specific context of the estab-
lished Western democracies, such as the US, political pollsters have played crucial roles in developing
democratic accountability and responsiveness (Jacobs and Shapiro, 2005: 633; Shapiro, 2011: 984–
985). Within the specific context of emerging democracies, such as Indonesia, they have been seen
as being gradually integrated in the political game and playing pivotal roles in advocating not only
142 Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 8(1)
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