Property futures—the art and science of strategic foresight
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-05-2020-0056 |
| Pages | 483-498 |
| Date | 09 July 2020 |
| Published date | 09 July 2020 |
| Author | John Ratcliffe |
| Subject Matter | Real estate & property,Property management & built environment |
Property futures—the art and
science of strategic foresight
John Ratcliffe
The Futures Academy, Maidenhead, UK
Abstract
Purpose –The study aims to discuss the role of strategic foresight in determining and mapping possible
property futures. In particular, the briefing will explore the importance of determining alternative futures and
creating scenarios to help determine a flexible and adaptable strategy.
Design/methodology/approach –This education briefing is an overview of property futures andstrategic
foresight.
Findings –This is an education briefing of existing knowledge.
Practical implications –Strategic foresight provides a framework and structure by identifyinga focal point
that looks at alternative futures and a preferred future that feed into the implementation of a strategic plan.
Originality/value –This is a review of existing models.
Keywords Property futures, Strategic foresight, Forecasting, Scenario planning, Alternative futures,
Strategic plans
Paper type General review
Education briefing: property futures—the art and science of strategic foresight
“Imagine Ahead –Plan Backwards”
Editor’s note: May 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has impacted on all areas of our personal and business lives. At
the time of writing there are numerous possible ramifications in the short, medium and long
term, but how these will play out is dependent upon how the virus progresses. There are three
overriding scenarios; “cure, treatment or acceptance”and each brings about a different set of
possibilities on how the world economy will deal with the current global downturn. This, in
turn, will affect the real estate profession at all levels of investment, development and
management. This education briefing looks at property futures through strategic foresight
and discusses the role of scenarios to provide a structure for adaptable and flexible plans.
Why foresight?
Leading any organisation or agency, (or even oneself!), in the 21st century is complex and
challenging. Can we contend with “disruption”in an age of increasing urbanisation,
accelerating technology, ageing population and growing connection? Are we prepared for
“convergence”, imagining for a moment that such fears as: the disintegration of the Euro; a
global pandemic far worse than Ebola, SARs or coronavirus; the dramatic slowing of the
North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream); or the assassination of a world leader by an extremist
group, not just happened, but actually coincided?
What, on top of ideological intolerance, migratory flows and regional disparity, will be the
new landscape of global conflict –water, energy, the Arctic, sea trading routes, the riches of
the Earth or the breakdown of law and order in the inner cities –and how will we cope? Is
capitalism itself at the crossroads –witnessing the end of “mercenary”capitalism and the
dawn of a new age of sustainable, stakeholder based capitalism? Can the world be governed
by means of multilateralism and the pursuit of a new politics? Would “localization”be the
The art and
science of
strategic
foresight
483
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
https://www.emerald.com/insight/1463-578X.htm
Received 15 May 2020
Revised 15 May 2020
Accepted 15 May 2020
Journal of Property Investment &
Finance
Vol. 38 No. 5, 2020
pp. 483-498
© Emerald Publishing Limited
1463-578X
DOI 10.1108/JPIF-05-2020-0056
answer –customising legal, economic and political frameworks and decision-making powers
more towards local and regional social cultures and geographic locales? And, above all, can
we develop a set of shared values for the future? These and a host of other doubts and
dilemmas beset us. Swamped by uncertainty, constrained by short-term orientations,
impoverished through lack of an integrated approach, impeded by the obsolescence of
“predict-and-provide”models and limited by inadequate collaboration of stakeholders, we
need a methodology to help. For me, unsurprisingly, that methodology is “strategic
foresight”.
The purposes and practices of foresight are well documented elsewhere in a growing
literature far too long to list and fairly familiar to those concerned. Like many other
practitioners I devised my own variation of the foresight process around a settled theme
inescapably common to all. Unashamedly though, I now adopt the approach advocated by
Andy Hines and Peter Bishop in Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight
(2015),which I wholeheartedly commend and portray in Table 1 above.
In any foresight exercise and assaying where we are going, trends materially matter, and
the stage in the foresighting process –“Horizon Scanning”–is worthy of special mention.
Indeed, individually it is part of our very psyche, and collectively should be a capability
formally structured within any organisation worth its salt. Generally, it can be defined as
discovering, examining and translating global thinking, information and research into
insights for risk, strategy, innovation and policy processes. More particularly it comprises:
(1) Looking ahead –beyond usual timescales.
(2) Looking across –beyond usual sources.
(3) Gazing beyond a single “expected”future to a range of alternative “possible futures”.
(4) Considering implications for today’s decisions.
(5) Promoting “resilience”and “adaptability”in strategy.
Recognising that events do not always move in tidy, linear or gradual ways, Strategic
Foresight is progressively being used in a wide realm of endeavours, from policy formation,
change management, risk appraisal, threat identification and programme prioritisation, to
decision-making, innovation research, enterprise development and my own bailiwick of city
planning and development. All too often, however, it is performed on a one-off basis, whilst its
Stage Objectives Output
Framing Scoping the project: attitude, audience, work environment, rationale
and purpose, objectives and teams
Focal issue
Scanning Collecting the information: the system, history and context of the
issue and how to scan for information regarding the future of issue
Information
Forecasting Describing baseline and alternative futures: drivers and
uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches and
alternatives
Baseline and
alternative futures
Visioning Choosinga preferred future: implications of the forecast and
envisioning desired outcomes
Preferred future
Planning Organising to achieve the vision: strategy, options and plans Strategy and plans
Acting Implementing the plan: communicating the results, developing
action agenda and institutionalising strategic thinking and
intelligence systems
Action
Source(s): By author
Table 1.
Strategic foresight
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