Psychological foundations and behavioral consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy theory beliefs: The Turkish case
| Published date | 01 September 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/01925121221084625 |
| Author | Cengiz Erisen |
| Date | 01 September 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Original Research Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121221084625
International Political Science Review
2023, Vol. 44(4) 587 –606
© The Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/01925121221084625
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Psychological foundations and
behavioral consequences of
COVID-19 conspiracy theory
beliefs: The Turkish case
Cengiz Erisen
Department of Political Science and International Relations, Yeditepe University, Turkey
Abstract
This article offers a comprehensive approach to understanding pandemic-related behavior by tackling
both the psychological predictors of belief in conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and their potential
consequences for trust in experts and institutions, compliance behavior and vaccine acceptance. Drawing
from an observational survey (n = 1028) in Turkey, this article examines: (a) the psychological precedents
of believing COVID-19 conspiracy theories; (b) how trust in experts, scientists and health authorities is
influential in controlling these beliefs; (c) to what extent conspiracy theory beliefs affect compliance with
protective measures; and (d) who is more likely to accept vaccination. Results demonstrate that one of the
potential solutions to the influence of conspiracy theory beliefs across an array of attitudes and behaviors is
to establish trust in experts, scientists and health authorities.
Keywords
COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, vaccination, trust, Turkey
The COVID-19 pandemic is probably the greatest challenge of modern times. All nations are
searching for solutions, from containing the spread of the virus to vaccinating the public as soon as
possible. One task that goes beyond the medical or pharmaceutical world to people’s everyday
lives is finding ways to control or correct conspiracy theories regarding COVID-19.
Scholarly research about conspiracy theory beliefs has been growing fast in recent years.
(Douglas et al., 2019; Miller et al., 2016; Uscinski and Parent, 2014; Van Proojen and Douglas,
2018). Earlier work tackled various aspects of the issue, from individual characteristics to social
and political predictors of conspiracy mindsets and conspiracy theory beliefs. Whilst some studies
investigated predictors of conspiracy theory acceptance (e.g. Uscinski et al., 2016), others focused
on its consequences (e.g. Jolley and Douglas, 2014). Research in this domain has also investigated
Corresponding author:
Cengiz Erisen, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Yeditepe University, 26 Agustos Campus,
Atasehir, Istanbul, 34755 Turkey.
Email: cengiz.erisen@yeditepe.edu.tr
1084625IPS0010.1177/01925121221084625International Political Science ReviewErisen
research-article2022
Original Research Article
588 International Political Science Review 44(4)
misinformation and debunking strategies (Nyhan and Reifler, 2010). Similarly, growing research
about populism indicates how conspiracy theory beliefs are important in understanding the psycho-
logical foundations of populist attitudes (Erisen et al., 2021). Meanwhile, major events indicate not
only the seriousness of planting misbeliefs in the public, but also major consequences for politics
generally and policymaking in health, education and finance specifically.
Alongside controlling the spread of the virus, the ultimate challenge of COVID-19 is to con-
vince people to get vaccinated. Reaching a sufficient level of herd immunity within each country
and globally is a common-good problem that requires collaboration. Yet conspiracy theories about
the vaccine and COVID-19 hinder this goal. Furthermore, if health professionals cannot agree on
formulating a clear message to the public, skeptics will shy away, making it impossible to achieve
the common goal. Given that the two parts of the issue – belief in conspiracy theories and trust in
experts and scientists – conflict with each other, findings in this area could exert meaningful politi-
cal and social implications.
Whilst research on the COVID-19 pandemic is thriving, it is still at the early stages of precisely
defining public reactions to conspiracy theory beliefs and lacks an in-depth assessment of their
foundations and consequences. Accordingly, this study takes a holistic approach by tackling both
the psychological predictors of belief in conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and their potential
consequences for compliance behavior and vaccination acceptance. Current study investigates this
research question in Turkey through a nationally representative survey. Results suggest that one
plausible solution to the influence of conspiracy theory beliefs against compliance behavior for
protective measures and vaccine acceptance is establishing trust in experts, scientists and health
authorities. Implications of this finding are further investigated in the article.
Understanding conspiracy theory beliefs
Earlier research defines conspiracy theory beliefs as beliefs about a group of powerful actors that
supposedly collude in secret to reach malevolent goals (Uscinski, 2020). These groups typically
attempt to take control of political or economic power through secret agreements that violate peo-
ple’s legal rights or alter foundational institutions. By definition, these claims only favor a small
powerful elite, whether a group of people, an institution or a firm.
Earlier studies revealed epistemic, existential and social motives for conspiracy theory beliefs
(Bilewicz et al., 2015; Douglas et al., 2019). Epistemic needs relate to how much an individual
seeks accuracy and meaning to make sense of events in the world. Belief in conspiracy theories
strongly relates to perceiving patterns in one’s environment, whether in everyday events or world
affairs (Van Prooijen et al., 2018). When explanations appear unsatisfactory, certain cognitive pro-
cesses engender a proclivity to seek answers to doubts and conundrums (Marchlewska et al., 2018).
People who think that they have greater ability to solve complex problems are drawn to conspiracy
theories. Thus, proneness to these beliefs relates to analytical thinking ability and cognitive skills.
Existential needs relate to the lack of agency, high uncertainty and low feelings of control in the
social world, which encourages a search for conspiracy theories to fill the void (Nyhan and Reifler,
2010; Uscinski and Parent, 2014). The feeling of powerlessness when existential needs are threat-
ened induces a search for answers, which motivates the individual toward a conspiracy mindset.
The perception of being unable to influence life (or politics in general as a function of apathy)
generates its own counterforce by seeking ways to cope with these threatening forces.
Different from the two previous motivations, social needs involve feelings of positivity in
comparison to other nations, groups or people. This need to maintain a positive view of the self
and the in-group encourages a belief in conspiracies. Given that individuals need to feel good
about their nationality or supported political party, the probability of outside forces intervening in
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