Public opinion on climate change: Belief and concern, issue salience and support for government action
| Author | Ralph Chapman,Sam Crawley,Hilde Coffé |
| DOI | 10.1177/1369148119888827 |
| Published date | 01 February 2020 |
| Date | 01 February 2020 |
| Subject Matter | Original Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148119888827
The British Journal of Politics and
International Relations
2020, Vol. 22(1) 102 –121
© The Author(s) 2019
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/1369148119888827
journals.sagepub.com/home/bpi
Public opinion on climate
change: Belief and concern,
issue salience and support for
government action
Sam Crawley1, Hilde Coffé2
and Ralph Chapman3
Abstract
Climate policy across the developed world remains inadequate, despite high levels of concern
about climate change among the public. Yet public opinion on climate change is complex, with
individuals differing on three key opinion dimensions: belief and concern, issue salience, and
support for government action. In this study, we investigate how these dimensions intersect at the
individual level. Based on data from an online survey conducted in 2018 in the United Kingdom
(N = 787), a latent class analysis reveals that there are five climate change opinion publics. The two
largest publics have strong beliefs that climate change is occurring, but view it as a low salience
issue, or are wary of government action to address it. We also investigate sociopolitical covariates
of each public. By providing a detailed picture of climate change views, these findings can help us
to better understand the relationship between public opinion and climate policy.
Keywords
climate change, issue salience, public opinion, United Kingdom
Introduction
While climate change is a problem that requires immediate and substantial action, to
date, pledges from national governments to reduce emissions have been inadequate.
Almost none of the countries party to the Paris agreement are on track to keep emis-
sions to a level compatible with the goal of remaining well under the maximum of 2°C
of warming by the end of the 21st century. While a variety of factors may account for
1 Political Science and International Relations Program, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New
Zealand
2Department of Politics, Languages & International Studies, University of Bath, Bath, UK
3
School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New
Zealand
Corresponding author:
Sam Crawley, Political Science and International Relations Program, Victoria University of Wellington, PO
Box 600, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Email: sam.crawley@vuw.ac.nz
888827BPI0010.1177/1369148119888827The British Journal of Politics and International RelationsCrawley et al.
research-article2019
Original Article
Crawley et al. 103
this lack of action, in liberal democracies, the views of the public often play a role in
determining the policies that governments select (Burstein, 2003; Shapiro, 2011;
Soroka and Wlezien, 2004), and previous research suggests that there is a link between
public opinion and climate policy (Tjernström and Tietenberg, 2008; Vandeweerdt
et al., 2016). It is important, then, to properly understand the nature of the public’s
views on climate change.
Previous studies have examined a range of dimensions of climate change opinion,
including the belief that climate change is occurring, degree of concern about climate
change, and the salience of the issue (e.g. Egan and Mullin, 2017; Lewis et al., 2018;
McCright and Dunlap, 2011; Scruggs and Benegal, 2012). Typically, however, these
dimensions are analysed separately, and the focus is often primarily on people’s degree
of belief or concern about climate change, or the extent to which people deny that cli-
mate change is occurring. A handful of studies have examined how multiple dimensions
of climate change opinion interact at the individual level (Leiserowitz et al., 2009;
Maibach et al., 2011; Metag et al., 2017), although they do not include the dimension of
issue salience.
Relying on an original online survey conducted in the United Kingdom in August
2018, the current study investigates three dimensions of climate change opinion. In con-
trast to previous studies investigating multiple dimensions of climate change opinion, we
examine not only belief in and concern about climate change but also issue salience and
support for government action on climate change. Issue salience can account for the dif-
ferences in resolve to address climate change among those who believe that climate
change is happening (Bromley-Trujillo et al., 2014). Moreover, issue salience is likely to
be critical in determining whether public opinion influences policy (Burstein, 2003), as it
is a clear signal from the public on whether more needs to be done by the government
(Soroka and Wlezien, 2004). Investigating these three dimensions, therefore, can help to
create a clearer picture of the relationship between climate change views and climate
policy than considering belief in climate change alone (Bromley-Trujillo et al., 2014;
Burstein, 2003; Hagen et al., 2016). We address two research questions in this study. First
(descriptive), how do the three dimensions intersect at the individual level to form differ-
ent ‘publics’ of climate change views? Second (explanatory), to what extent do sociopo-
litical characteristics relate to membership of these publics?
Theory
The dimensions of climate change opinion
Research suggests that large majorities in most countries believe that climate change is
occurring and are concerned about it (Tranter and Booth, 2015). It could be inferred from
these findings that policy-makers – who have so far failed to address climate change
adequately – are ignoring public opinion by not adopting stronger climate policies.
However, few of those who accept the science of climate change see it as a high salience
issue, or support government action to address it (Bromley-Trujillo et al., 2014; Kotchen
et al., 2017). Therefore, any hesitancy by climate policy-makers to adopt a more compre-
hensive policy programme may be due not to the public’s denial of climate change but to
the fact that the public views climate change as a low salience issue and are concerned
about the consequences of government policy action.
Given the multi-dimensional nature of climate change views, it is important to ensure
that all relevant aspects are accounted for when analysing opinion on climate change. One
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