Rainfall shocks and intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa
| Author | Sara Cools,Andreas Kotsadam,Martin Flatø |
| Published date | 01 May 2020 |
| Date | 01 May 2020 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343319880252 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Regular Articles
Rainfall shocks and intimate partner
violence in sub-Saharan Africa
Sara Cools
Institute for Social Research, Oslo
Martin Flatø
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Andreas Kotsadam
Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research
Abstract
Global climate change makes extreme precipitation events likely to become more frequent and intense in large parts
of Africa. We study the effect of rainfall shocks on intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis
shows the presence of spatial autocorrelation in rainfall shocks, which compromises the exogeneity of rainfall shocks
in many applications. We correct for the autocorrelation using spatial polynomials. In particular, we use three
different estimation strategies. We first use the complete cross-sectional sample to analyze whether recent droughts
are correlated with respondents’ experience with intimate partner violence during the last year. We then use the nine
countries with repeated surveys to construct a repeated cross-section analysis at the grid level. Finally, we use event
history analysis on a time series constructed from the information provided by the abused women about when the
violence first took place. We find no robust evidence that droughts increase intimate partner violence. Potential
explanations are that the rainfall shocks do not affect spouses’ power, or that the slow onset of the droughts allows for
a calmer response to the crisis. We contribute to the wider literature on climate an d conflict as many of the
mechanisms, economic and psychological, that link climate to violence apply to both intimate partner violence and
organized violence.
Keywords
Africa, violence, weather shocks
Introduction
Among the regions of the world, sub-Saharan Africa has
one of the highest levels of intimate partner violence
(World Health Organization, 2013). It is also the
world’s poorest region. Due to the largely agrarian struc-
ture of African economies and low levels of irrigation,
rainfall is particularly relevant for African households
(Burke, Gong & Jones, 2015; Miguel, Satyanath &
Sergenti, 2004). Though often used as instrumental vari-
ables for income loss, recent studies have demonstrated
that rainfall shocks impact other outcomes directly
(Sarsons, 2015; Landis et al., 2017; see also Miguel &
Satyanath, 2011). We study the effects of rainfall shocks
on intimate partner violence directly.
As global climate change makes average precipitation
likely to decrease in dry regions and extreme precipita-
tion events likely to become more frequent and intense
in large parts of Africa (IPCC, 2014), the total (‘reduced
form’) effect of rainfall shocks on intimate partner vio-
lence is an interesting object of study on its own.
Corresponding author:
andreas.kotsadam@frisch.uio.no
Journal of Peace Research
2020, Vol. 57(3) 377–390
ªThe Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343319880252
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