Refugees, ethnic power relations, and civil conflict in the country of asylum
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343318812935 |
| Published date | 01 January 2019 |
| Author | Seraina Rüegger |
| Date | 01 January 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Refugees, ethnic power relations, and civil
conflict in the country of asylum
Seraina Ru
¨egger
Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich
Abstract
Many countries that face forced migrant inflows refuse to admit these uprooted people premised on negative
externalities such as increased insecurity associated with refugee presence. Also, the academic literature on civil
conflict identified refugee movements as a factor contributing to the regional clustering of war. Case-based evidence
suggests that refugees can disturb the ethnic setup in the country of asylum and thereby trigger instability. To
enhance the yet limited systematic understanding of the role of refugees in violent conflicts, this study examines the
linkage between forced migrants, transnational connections, and ethnic civil conflict in the country of asylum with a
large-N analysis, 1975–2013, arguing that ethnic power politics in the asylum state are determinant for intrastate
conflict onset after a refugee influx. Statistical analysis finds that groups are particularly prone to conflict if they are
excluded from governmental power and simultaneously host ethnic kin refugees, because a co-ethnic refugee influx
enlarges the demographic and political leverage of the kin group, possibly resulting in clashes with other groups in the
country. Hence, refugees alone do not consistently influence armed violence – only in combination with political
tensions in the receiving country. Therefore, host governments should pursue inclusionary policies towards their
population, to prevent dangerous instability, instead of closing borders or blaming refugees for domestic problems.
Keywords
civil conflict, ethnicity, refugees
Introduction
Although the Kurdish minority in Turkey welcomes co-
ethnic Kurdish refugees from Syria, they are worried that
the large influx of Syrian Sunni Arabs will upset the
delicate ethnic balance in Eastern Turkey (International
Crisis Group, 2016). Similarly, the Lebanese govern-
ment and population fear that the Syrian refugee influx
will disturb that country’s fragile sectarian balance (Inter-
national Alert, 2015; Itani & Grebowski, 2013).
Refugee migration is a prominent topic in today’s
world. Faced with the prospect of forced migrant
inflows, many potential host governments place restric-
tions of varying levels on prospective admits. Potential
host governments are worried that a higher refugee pres-
ence brings with it negative externalities such as
increased insecurity. In particular, in countries of asylum
where refugees differ from the local population in terms
of religion, language or phenotypical features, govern-
ments may adopt anti-immigration policies. Yet, such
policies assume that refugee flows generally increase
instability. This overlooks the observation that most ref-
ugees never participate in violent activities.
Recent years have witnessed a heightened political
debate regarding the effects of refugee inflows on domes-
tic stability. Simultaneously, research on the risks asso-
ciated with forced displacement has gained practical
relevance. To date, however, the literature on refugees
and intrastate conflict does not offer a clear answer to the
question of how refugees affect domestic stability. This is
particularly since the literature mainly consists of quali-
tative studies that focus on a few prominent cases
(Adamson, 2006; Krcmaric, 2014; Lischer, 2005;
Loescher & Milner, 2005; Newland, 1993; Whitaker,
1998). In an often-cited comparative study, Salehyan &
Gleditsch (2006) find that refugee-receiving countries
Corresponding author:
ruegger@icr.gess.ethz.ch
Journal of Peace Research
2019, Vol. 56(1) 42–57
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343318812935
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have a higher risk of experiencing civil war, owing to the
destabilizing consequences for the host state’s economy,
society, and security. More recently, the effect of internal
and cross-border displacement on the risk of terrorist
attacks has received academic attention (Bove & Bo
¨h-
melt, 2016; Choi & Salehyan, 2013; Choi & Piazza,
2016; Milton, Spencer & Findley, 2013). Yet, even the
studies that employ quantitative analysis across many
countries fail to explain how refugee flows affect the risk
of ethnic conflict. By focusing on the country level, such
studies do not offer a view into the effect of different
refugee groups on within-country ethnic balance. In par-
ticular, these studies neglect the decisive role of the host
regime to prevent insecurity and have been hampered by
a lack of systematic data on the ethnicity of refugees, the
latter of which has recently become available.
Still, many examples from different world regions
suggest that refugees increase ethnic instability in the
receiving state. For instance, the massive influx of
Afghan refugees into the Balochistan province of
Pakistan in the 1980s was followed by ethnic conflict
(Jamal, 2016). Belize’s ethnic Creole-Mestizo balance
was complicated by the influx of Salvadorian refugees
(McCommon, 1989). In Zaire, the arrival of over one
million Hutus from Rwanda in 1994 led to a deteriora-
tion of the relationship among local Hutus, Tutsi, and
other groups (Lischer, 2005: 13). Indeed, many political
leaders that oppose hosting refugees base their claims on
these cases. Thus, it is crucial to ask whether these cases
were exceptions to a broader pattern of positive or null
effects on stability, or if refugee inflows increase the risk
of interethnic tensions on average.
Ethnic identities are fundamental in conflict processes
because violence often escalates between different iden-
tity groups, owing to political or economic grievances.
Consequently, I argue that the ethnicity of refugees is
well worth systematic examination. Therefore, this arti-
cleexploreshowrefugeeflowsmayaffecttheriskof
armed ethnic conflict in the receiving state, depending
on local ethnic politics and ethnic ties between refugees
and the host population. By answering this question,
I elucidate the risks of refugee-related violence and con-
tribute to an important gap in conflict studies. The ques-
tion of whether refugees disturb the ethnic balance in
host states holds significant policy relevance. Knowing
how to anticipate and prevent tensions in the context of
refugee immigration clarifies where refugee protection is
most needed and helps advance a more efficient interna-
tional refugee response regime. Also, by disaggregating
refugee caseloads according to their ethnic identity, I
increase the knowledge on different refugee groups and
better account for the considerable variation that char-
acterizes global refugee flows.
Leveraging an updated version of the ethnicity of
refugees (ER) dataset covering 1975 until 2013 (Ru
¨egger
& Bohnet, 2018), I show that the vast majority of refu-
gees worldwide do not cause conflict in the asylum state.
Yet, I also show that if refugees arrive in countries with
pre-existing exclusion of a refugee group’s co-ethnics,
there is a higher risk of exacerbated domestic tensions.
My study attributes this reason to a two-step process: a
refugee influx in this scenario leads to an increase in the
size and political leverage of their ethnic group in the
host country, including by sharing rebellious ideas or
increasing the manpower of the ethnic group as a whole.
This step, in turn, is perceived as a threat by politically
dominant groups, who may pre-emptively or reactively
suppress either refugees or their ethnic kin in the host
state. The combined effect of co-ethnic refugees and
political marginalization is robust to a number of con-
founding factors and alternative explanations.
This article is organized as follows. First, I review the
literature on forced displacement and political violence.
Next, I introduce the theoretical framework, focusing on
how the ethnicity of refugees and ethnic power relations
in the asylum state impact the likelihood of intrastate
conflict onset. In the following section, I test the risk of
civil conflict in the context of refugee inflows at the
ethnic group level. I examine the claim that a refugee
influx itself does not cause violence, but only does so in
combination with the political marginalization of their
local co-ethnics. The article concludes with a discussion
of policy implications.
Previous research on forced migration
and political violence
In simplified terms, the United Nations High Commis-
sioner for Refugees (UNHCR, 2007: 3) defines a ‘refu-
gee’ as ‘someone who is unable or unwilling to return to
their country of origin owing to a well-founded fear of
being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality,
membership of a particular social group, or political
opinion’. Customarily, refugee status is granted to indi-
viduals who flee general violence since it is othe rwise
difficult to prove risks of facing persecution. Refugee
movements have been the subject of intensive study, but
it remains unclear how they impact the asylum state’s
ethnic power politics. Besides the risk of an upset ethnic
balance, previous research has argued that refugees con-
tribute to regional instability through economic decline,
pressures on public health or the import of rebels and
Ru
¨egger 43
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