Regime change and religious discrimination after the Arab uprisings
| Published date | 01 May 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221085894 |
| Date | 01 May 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Regime change and religious discrimination
after the Arab uprisings
Jason Klocek
School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham
Hyun Jeong Ha
DKU Faculty, Duke Kunshan University
Nathanael Gratias Sumaktoyo
National University of Singapore
Abstract
This article investigates how and when regime transitions intensify minority discrimination through an analysis of
two types of religious persecution following the Arab uprisings. We argue that weakened institutions and the
prevalence of religious outbidding during political transitions make societal-based religious discrimination (SRD)
more likely to increase than government-based religious discrimination (GRD). This is because social divisions are
often exacerbated and social unrest difficult to contain, while at the same time, policy change can be difficult to enact
and enforce. We test these claims through a mixed-methods research design. Employing a synthetic control method,
the cross-national, quantitative analysis from 1990 to 2014 confirms that GRD has not changed since the Arab
uprisings, while SRD has substantially increased in those countries (i.e. Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia) that also
experienced regime change. A case study of Egypt provides more direct evidence of the institutional and outbidding
mechanisms. The qualitative analysis draws on ethnographic research conducted in Cairo during 2014, which
includes in-depth interviews with Coptic Orthodox Christians. Our findings underscore the twin challen ge of
protecting and accommodating minority religions during periods of political transition.
Keywords
Arab Spring, Arab uprisings, Egypt, political repression, political transitions, regime change, religious discrimination,
religious outbidding
How and when do regime transitions intensify minority,
especially religious, discrimination? A growing body of
scholarship acknowledges the challenges faced by minor-
ity communities in the interval between regimes – warn-
ing that political transitions, particularly the early stages
of democratization, are prone to heightened religious
and ethnic tensions, intercommunal conflict, and state
repression (Mansfield & Snyder, 1995; Snyder, 2000;
Hegre et al., 2001; Christensen, Nguyen & Sexton,
2019; Costalli & Moro, 2019). Additional research stres-
ses that minority religious and ethnic groups are often
the targets of the harassment, violence, and exclusionary
state policies that emerge when a regime is replaced
(Anderson, 2003; Lawoti, 2008; Zabad, 2017).
What we still know less about, however, are the chan-
nels through which minority discrimination occurs dur-
ing political transitions. Are government restrictions and
regulations the primary means of persecution? To what
extent do majority group members who are not repre-
sentatives of the state also persecute minorities? And
Corresponding author:
jason.klocek@nottingham.ac.uk
Journal of Peace Research
2023, Vol. 60(3) 489–503
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433221085894
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