Regional political paradigm shift: Challenges and opportunities for Pakistan
| Author | Syed Muhammad Saad Zaidi, Nirmal |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20578911221103358 |
| Published date | 01 December 2022 |
| Date | 01 December 2022 |
| Subject Matter | South Asian Politics |
Regional political paradigm
shift: Challenges and
opportunities for Pakistan
Syed Muhammad Saad Zaidi
Bahria University, Pakistan
Nirmal
Bahria University, Pakistan
Abstract
With the dawn of the 21st century, a global political paradigmatic shift was witnessed; no longer
was Europe considered to be the focal point of geopolitics. Now, all eyes were on the Asian con-
tinent; with the brewing Afghan conflict, the arguably rising global hegemony contender China, the
convoluted Iranian crisis, rapidly rising economic powers in South-East Asia, the key strategic
power of the Indian Ocean and India and, amidst all, the dramatically increasing footprint of the
United States. Consequently, as states with opposing interests were ferociously competing for
regional dominance, a great degree of political polarization was induced in the regional geopolitical
structure, which in turn forced political realignments. Old foes became friends (India and the
United States), whereas decades old alliances broke (Pakistan and the United States). This dramatic
regional political paradigm shift has forced Pakistan to completely transform its foreign policy, from
a pro-western to an eastern/regional approach. This article explores how the changing regional
geopolitical dynamics is affecting Pakistan’s foreign policy. It does so by critically analysing the geo-
political realignments in the region and the myriad regional conflicts/crises, while predominantly
highlighting their implications for Pakistan. A mix-approach based on descriptive and critical ana-
lytical qualitative research methods has been adopted to conduct this study.
Keywords
foreign policy analysis, geopolitics, geostrategy, Indo-US nexus, Afghan conflict, Pak-
China partnership, Iranian conundrum
Corresponding author:
Syed Muhammad Saad Zaidi, Bahria University, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
Email: saadz93@hotmail.com
South Asian Politics
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2022, Vol. 7(4) 772–789
© The Author(s) 2022
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/20578911221103358
journals.sagepub.com/home/acp
Introduction
Throughout the course of history, geopolitical paradigmatic shifts have been repeatedly witnessed.
Time and again, the global political structure and regional political dimensions have been
re-engineered, when a rising power started to claim the lion’s share and the declining status quo
power was reluctant to let go of its throne. Thus, great power competition (GPC) is an inevitable
and recurrent phenomenon. In modern history, the first ever recorded GPC was witnessed when
Sparta and Athens, in ancient Greece, competed for dominance (Allison, 2017). In the last 500
years, approximately 16 GPCs have been recorded, with 12 ending up in conflict (Allison,
2017). However, these GPCs do not work in segregation, but greatly affect global and regional
politics.
In the last century, the global political landscape went through major transformations: after the
Second World War, from multipolarity to bipolarity, and after the Cold War, from bipolarity to uni-
polarity (Hilali, 2006). The events of the Cold War drastically reconfigured South Asian politics.
The region was divided on an ideological basis; Iran and Pakistan being in the United States’
(US) corner, and China and India forming an informal alliance with the Soviet Union (USSR).
Also, the security dilemma and mistrust among states prevented the region from reaching its eco-
nomic and political potential.
Prior to the commencement of the unipolar moment, the image of a state in the realm of inter-
national politics was greatly dependent upon its geopolitical alignment. During the Cold War, states
siding with the Soviet Union were generally considered to be regressive, while the US allies were
termed as progressive. However, after the Cold War ended, this way of perceiving a state became
redundant. Now, the perception of the global hegemon vis-a-vis other states was the defining factor
of how the world perceived them. No longer were China and India considered adversary states by
the US, despite their tremendous economic growth rate and increasing role in global politics; thus,
the world was more accommodating and welcoming towards them. On the contrary, Iran and
Afghanistan were considered a threat to global peace, as the US considered them to be a nuisance.
Also, Pakistan became a key ally of the US, especially due to its role in the US-led War on Terror
(WoT) in Afghanistan (Katz, 2011).
Up till 2008, the geopolitics of South Asia was predominantly driven by the WoT and the Iranian
nuclear issue, with the US leading regional affairs. However, the financial crisis of 2008 was a
watershed moment, as post crisis, China not only emerged as the frontline challenger to US
global primacy but also as Asia’s regional hegemon by projecting its mammoth economic
prowess to the world. The rise of China in the global political arena instigated yet another GPC,
which, in turn, adversely affected the geopolitics of Asia generally and South Asian politics
particularly.
In the last decade, China’s use of economic diplomacy, focusing on mighty infrastructure devel-
opment projects, and of soft power has greatly increased its influence over the region (Nasreen,
2017). This rapidly growing influence, especially in winning over states that were generally con-
sidered to be close US allies, was of great concern for the US, as for the US, South Asia holds
immense geostrategic significance. The hydrocarbon resources and the sea lines of communication
in the Indian Ocean are of vital interest to the US. Thus, the US has quite shrewdly been using
Afghanistan to keep close tabs on China. Also, backing out of the Iranian nuclear deal was a US
ploy to pressurize China’s compliance. However, the US containment policy and its rapidly
growing strategic partnership with India poses a serious threat to the strategic stability and security
environment of South Asia (Nasreen, 2017).
Zaidi and Nirmal 773
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