Relationships between demographic and behavioural factors and spatial behaviour in missing persons’ cases
| Published date | 01 July 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/17488958211060475 |
| Author | Freya O’Brien,Susan Giles,Sara Waring |
| Date | 01 July 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/17488958211060475
Criminology & Criminal Justice
2023, Vol. 23(3) 409 –430
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/17488958211060475
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Relationships between
demographic and behavioural
factors and spatial behaviour in
missing persons’ cases
Freya O’Brien , Susan Giles
and Sara Waring
University of Liverpool, UK
Abstract
To date, limited systematic focus has been directed to examining factors that influence the
spatial behaviour of missing people. Accordingly, this study examined whether demographic and
behavioural factors were related to distance between missing and found locations in 16,454
archival cases of missing reports from two UK police forces. Findings from ordinal regressions
showed that children were more likely to be found at further distances if they were deemed to
be at high or medium risk of coming to harm but less likely to be located further away when
victims of a violent attack. Adults were more likely to be found at further distances if planning
behaviours were present (e.g. had taken their passport), but less likely to if they were above the
age of 65 years or suffering from abuse. Findings indicate the role of age, planning and vulnerability
on travel when missing. Implications for search strategies and directions for future research are
considered.
Keywords
Demographic and behavioural factors, missing persons, search strategies, spatial behaviour
Introduction
In 2019 and 2020, police forces in England and Wales reported 325,171 missing inci-
dents (2% increase on 2018 and 2019; National Crime Agency, 2021). Responding to
Corresponding author:
Freya O’Brien, Department of Psychology, University of Liverpool, Eleanor Rathbone Building, Liverpool,
L69 7ZA, UK.
Email: f.obrien@liverpool.ac.uk
1060475CRJ0010.1177/17488958211060475Criminology & Criminal JusticeO’Brien et al.
research-article2021
Article
410 Criminology & Criminal Justice 23(3)
missing incidents is resource intensive but police numbers have decreased by 14% over
the past decade due to austerity measures, creating pressure for police to do more with
less. Developing a robust evidence base that improves understanding of spatial behav-
iour in missing people would be beneficial for informing search strategy (Shalev et al.,
2009), helping police to utilise finite resources more effectively. To date, however, only
a few studies have focused on spatial behaviour in missing people, and these have used
either qualitative (Stevenson et al., 2013) or descriptive methods (Eales, 2016; Gibb and
Woolnough, 2007). Findings indicate that spatial behaviour may be related to demo-
graphic and behavioural factors, but this has yet to be systematically examined using
inferential statistics (Taylor et al., 2019).
Spatial behaviour has received greater research focus within the criminal offending
domain, with findings showing the influence of factors such as age, gender, experience
and planning on distance travelled (Snook, 2004). While going missing is not a crime
(Taylor et al., 2019), in the absence of missing persons research, this study draws on lit-
erature from the offending domain to begin developing an understanding of missing
journeys (e.g. journey-to-crime research and models from environmental criminology),
as well as the limited research on missing persons’ spatial behaviour. Examining 16,454
archival cases of missing children and adults reported to two UK police forces, we test
whether demographic (e.g. age, gender) and behavioural (e.g. planning, antecedent vul-
nerabilities, missing history) factors influence the distance between where people go
missing from and where they are found. This will allow arguments to be put forward
regarding how missing people may make travel decisions while missing and how factors
such as impulsivity might influence these decisions. Findings will be beneficial for
informing police search strategies and broadening understanding of the processes that
govern spatial behaviour.
Journey-to-crime research and theoretical underpinnings
In the absence of a well-developed body of research into spatial behaviour in missing
people, we draw on the journey-to-crime literature to begin developing a model of miss-
ing spatial behaviour. Most research examining offender spatial behaviour centres around
examining the relationship between the location of the offender’s base or measuring the
distances between home location and crime location (also called ‘journey to crime’
research). Typically, research shows these distances to be short, even across a range of
different crime types (see Townsley and Sidebottom, 2010). Similarly, when examining
aggregate crime data, the frequency of crimes committed decreases or ‘decays’ as the
distance from an offender’s home base increases (Turner, 1969). A similar pattern is also
present within missing persons’ populations, with people tending to be found a short
distance from where they went missing (Shalev et al., 2009).
Various ideas have been drawn from environmental criminology theories to under-
stand why offenders often exhibit short journey-to-crime distances. Routine Activity
Theory (Cohen and Felson, 1979), for example, proposes that offenders will come across
opportunities to offend through their daily, routine activities. Crime Pattern Theory
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