Religion and State Failure: An Examinationof the Extent and Magnitude of Religiousconflict from 1950 to 1996
| Published date | 01 January 2004 |
| Date | 01 January 2004 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0192512104038167 |
| Author | Jonathan Fox |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Religion and State Failure: An Examination
of the Extent and Magnitude of Religious
Conflict from 1950 to 1996
JONATHAN FOX
ABSTRACT. Although the role of religion in conflict has been gaining
increasing attention in recent times, few cross-sectional studies have
examined the extent to which internal conflict since World War II has
been religious, and those that have done so are limited in either the type
of conflict or time span they cover. Accordingly, this article uses the State
Failure data set to assess whether the relative and absolute number of
religious conflicts since World War II has increased, whether these con-
flicts are more intense than other conflicts, and whether any particular
religions participate in conflict more often than others. The findings
show that while occurring less often than other types of conflicts,
religious conflicts have increased between 1950 and 1996, and are more
intense than nonreligious conflicts. Also, Christian groups dispropor-
tionally participate in internal conflict, but most of those conflicts are
with other Christian groups. This, along with other findings of the study,
contradicts major elements of Samuel Huntington’s “clash of
civilizations” theory.
Keywords:• Clash of civilizations • Conflict • Religion • Samuel
Huntington • State failure
The role of religion in conflict has been gaining increasing attention in recent
times. Yet not too long ago, the dominant paradigm in political science predicted
the end of religion as an important political factor and sociologists continue to
debate whether religion will be a relevant social factor. Despite this, few cross-
sectional studies have examined the extent to which conflicts have been religious,
and those that have done so have looked only at some types of conflicts or only at
conflicts during a limited time period. Accordingly, this study uses data from the
State Failure data set, which contains information on serious internal conflicts
International Political Science Review (2004), Vol 25, No. 1, 55–76
DOI: 10.1177/0192512104038167 © 2004 International Political Science Association
SAGE Publications (London, Thousand Oaks, CA and New Delhi)
from 1950 to 1996, in order to examine the extent to which conflicts during this
period can be characterized as religious, whether religious conflicts are more
intense than other conflicts, and whether particular religions, especially Islam, are
disproportionally involved in conflict.
Predictions of the Fall and Rise of Religion
During the 1950s and 1960s, the dominant theory in political science regarding
the role of religion was modernization theory. This paradigm predicted that
factors inherent in modernization, including economic development,
urbanization, growing rates of literacy and education as well as advancements in
science and technology, would inevitably lead to the demise of the role of religion
in politics.1While most of the modernization literature dealt with the demise of
ethnicity, its predictions were clearly also meant to apply to religion (Appleby,
1994: 7–8; Haynes, 1994: 21–3; Sahliyeh, 1990: 3–4). Currently, modernization
theory is no longer the dominant theory in political science. The rise in ethnic
conflict has resulted in numerous studies on the topic, such as those of Gurr
(1993a, 1993b, 2000), among many others, and has also resulted in the founding
of new journals on the topic, including Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict, Nations and
Nationalism, and Ethnicities. Similarly, the argument that religion is no longer
relevant to politics has considerably fewer adherents. Perhaps the watershed event
which caused this re-evaluation was the Iranian revolution, which clearly
demonstrated that religion is still a vital political force in at least some parts of the
world.2Since then, various other conflicts and events throughout the world have
reinforced the view that religion continues to influence politics. These include,
but are not limited to, the conflicts in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, East Timor,
Kashmir, and several states in the Middle East, the rise of religious funda-
mentalism as a political force, and the September 11, 2001, attacks on the USA.
Secularization theory, which similarly predicts the demise of religion as a
relevant social force due to factors inherent in modernization, was the dominant
theory in sociology and, perhaps, remains so. While in the past, this argument was
rarely questioned by sociologists (Hadden, 1987b; Westhus, 1976: 314), many are
beginning to question the theory’s assumptions. However, many sociologists still
believe in the validity of secularization theory. In fact, a recent volume of Sociology
of Religion was devoted entirely to this debate. The debate centers around two
questions. First, does secularization mean that people are becoming less religious
or that the influence of religion on politics and society is waning and religion is
moving from the public sphere to the private sphere? Second, are either of these
versions of secularization occurring?
The participants in this debate have widely divergent answers to these questions
and the debate, if nothing else, shows that the question of whether religion has an
influence on politics and society is a question that continues to be asked by
sociologists. Dobbelaere (1999) argues that religion, which was once the
foundation of the social system, has become a subsystem within a larger secular
system and, furthermore, that the religious subsystem is mostly within the private
sphere and has little influence over public issues. Lambert (1999) similarly argues
that modern factors, including reason, science, individualism, mass participation
in politics, capitalism, and globalization, have changed both the nature of religion
and its role in society. Religious knowledge is more accessible to individuals and
placed in the context of knowledge from other sources. As a result, religion has
56 International Political Science Review 25(1)
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