Reluctant allies: system-unit dynamics and China-Russia relations
| DOI | 10.1177/0047117818812561 |
| Author | Vladimir Portyakov,Alexander Korolev |
| Date | 01 March 2019 |
| Published date | 01 March 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117818812561
International Relations
2019, Vol. 33(1) 40 –66
© The Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/0047117818812561
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Reluctant allies: system-unit
dynamics and China-Russia
relations
Alexander Korolev
University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney, Australia
Vladimir Portyakov
Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Abstract
This article attempts to advance the neoclassical realist framework by elaborating on the interaction
between system-level and unit-level factors in the formation of states’ behavior. With an empirical
focus on post-Cold War China–Russia relations, which represent the ambivalent combination of
a consistently growing strategic entente and a simultaneous reluctance to form a full-fledged
political-military alliance, this study establishes two major unit-level factors – differing economic
models and negative historical memories – that create hurdles for alliance formation between the
two countries. However, under greater systemic pressure from the US-led unipolarity, China’s
and Russia’s state leaders have not only increased bilateral military-to-military cooperation but
have begun to actively implement policies to deliberately transform, if not remove, the existing
non-systemic hurdles. Therefore, the neoclassical realist framework can be understood and
further tested as a dynamic interaction model in which the unit-level circumstances, while
moderating the causal impact of the system, are themselves being transformed by the system via
state policies, as is their impact on states’ foreign policy.
Keywords
China-Russia relations, foreign policy, neoclassical realism
Corresponding author:
Alexander Korolev, School of Social Sciences, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of New South
Wales Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
Email: a.korolev@unsw.edu.au
812561IRE0010.1177/0047117818812561International RelationsKorolev and Portyakov
research-article2018
Article
Korolev and Portyakov 41
Introduction
This study is motivated by two intellectual goals – one empirical and one theoretical. The
empirical goal is to explain contemporary China–Russia relations, which display an
ambivalent pattern that consists of a consolidating strategic cooperation and simultane-
ously a persistent reluctance on both sides to form a full-fledged political-military alli-
ance. To explain this pattern, one must explicate the motivations behind both the absence
of a formal alliance in an allegedly alliance-conducive international environment and the
simultaneous presence of a trend toward stronger strategic cooperation, which the multi-
ple hurdles between China and Russia should have prevented from happening.
The theoretical goal is to advance the neoclassical realist framework by elaborating
on how the systemic and state (unit)-level variables interact with each other in generating
foreign policy. The existing studies have already established that the primary causal
effect of the system can be moderated to various degrees by unit-level intervening vari-
ables.1 However, as demonstrated below, the actual interaction between systemic (inde-
pendent) and unit-level (intervening) variables, particularly the ways in which the
changes in former influence the latter, as well as its implications for states’ behavior,
invite further development and specification.
On one hand, neoclassical realism’s promise to combine the variables of different
levels in multidirectional causal models makes this approach particularly capable of han-
dling cases that are characterized by ambiguity and contradicting trends, as is ours. On
the other hand, the complex, multipronged nature of China–Russia relations helps flesh
out the empirical record of neoclassical realist models. Both countries are great powers
with important structural positions within the international system and, therefore, they
are directly affected by system-level trends, which require system-level analysis. At the
same time, both have complex domestic political and economic environments that figure
highly in the calculus of their foreign policy toward each other, which highlights the
importance of unit-level factors. Sufficiently explaining China–Russia relations requires
the integration of both levels as neoclassical realism does.
This article finds that contemporary China–Russia relations are shaped by counter-
vailing forces that come from different – system and unit – levels and generate counter-
active impacts. While the systemic pressure coming from the US-led unipolarity pushes
China and Russia toward each other, at the unit-level two major hurdles – domestic
economic models and historical memories – complicate the relationship and disincentiv-
ize alliance formation. More importantly, the blocking power of those unit-level hurdles
has been decreasing as a result of Beijing’s and Moscow’s deliberate policies, which
have been implemented in response to growing systemic pressure. While the hurdles
remain, the two states have been working diligently to minimize their impact, leading to
an upward trend in the China–Russia strategic partnership.
Thus, this study contributes to the existing knowledge both empirically and theoreti-
cally. Empirically, it helps sort out the ambivalence of post-Cold War China–Russia rela-
tions, which have cleaved the field into ‘optimists’ (or ‘alarmists’), who observe the
increasing strategic closeness between the two countries and argue that the China–Russia
partnership is solid, reliable, and has serious potential to grow and balance the system
leader (the United States), and ‘skeptics’, who pile up unit-level counter-evidence to
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