Remaining behind in the community: Rebel service provision and internal (non-)displacement of civilians in the former FATA, Pakistan
| Published date | 01 May 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221079868 |
| Date | 01 May 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Remaining behind in the community:
Rebel service provision and internal
(non-)displacement of civilians
in the former FATA, Pakistan
Yuichi Kubota
Department of Political Science and Economics, Nihon University
Abstract
It is common during a civil war that a government’s counterinsurgency operations result in internally displaced
persons seeking refuge from the violence by leaving their communities. However, many civilians alternatively
choose to stay in their homes and seek accommodation from the rebels. It is, therefore, puzzling that in a civil war
situation when rebel cadres often cannot protect civilians, civilians would remain in their communities. This article
argues that the wartime provision of public services motivates civilians to stay with the rebel group because it
demonstrates the group’s capability for and commitment to developing civilians’ welfare and livelihoods. This
argument offers insight into an unanswered question in the literature regarding internal displacement in a civil war:
Why do some civilians, when facing protection issues in rebel-held areas, choose to stay, while others opt to leave?
Using novel survey data collected over two phases from the former Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) in
Pakistan, a two-step Bayesian propensity score analysis reveals that the civilians who received rebel services are less
likely to leave their places of residence. Civilians would pursue long-term goals during the crossfire between the
government and rebel forces; wartime provisions of public services allow civilians to seriously consider the possibility
of improving their lives.
Keywords
civil war, internal displacement, rebel governance
Introduction
Humanitarian crises during civil wars are a major cause
of the internal displacement of civilians. The link
between civilian displacement and war-related violence
is suggested by the recent cases of armed conflict caus-
ing large-scale forced migration, most notably in Afgha-
nistan, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria (UNHCR,
2020). Even in the face of severe danger, however,
civilians do not always take to their heels and may
instead decide to stay behind.
It is well known that civilians often seek the protec-
tion of a rebel group by staying in their communities,
where the group exercises its authority (Steele, 2011).
Yet, given that rebel cadres are often unable to protect
civilians from wartime violence, it is not clear why civi-
lians would still choose to stay. This article argues that
the provision of public services motivates civilians to
remain with the rebels because it demonstrates the rebels’
capability for and commitment to developing the civi-
lians’ future welfare and livelihood. This argument offers
insight into the unanswered question in the literature
regarding internal displacement in a civil war: Why do
some civilians, when facing protection issues in rebel-
held areas, choose to stay, while others opt to leave?
Corresponding author:
kubota.yuichi@nihon-u.ac.jp
Journal of Peace Research
2023, Vol. 60(3) 444–458
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433221079868
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