Representation in Wales: An empirical analysis of policy divisions between voters and candidates
| Author | Siim Trumm |
| Published date | 01 May 2018 |
| Date | 01 May 2018 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1369148117740284 |
| Subject Matter | Original Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148117740284
The British Journal of Politics and
International Relations
2018, Vol. 20(2) 425 –440
© The Author(s) 2017
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DOI: 10.1177/1369148117740284
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Representation in Wales: An
empirical analysis of policy
divisions between voters and
candidates
Siim Trumm
Abstract
Politics in Wales is often portrayed as being relatively consensual and enjoying healthy levels of
trust between voters and elites when compared with the rest of the United Kingdom. Recent
events, like the decision of Welsh voters to reject membership of the EU against the advice of
most of its political establishment, are however calling into question this perception. Using the
2016 Welsh Candidate Study and 2016 Welsh Election Study data, this article evaluates the extent
of policy divisions between voters and candidates in Wales. I find that candidates hold more liberal
policy positions and are less likely than voters to think of immigration as the most important policy
priority. In addition, they tend to favour a different approach to parliamentary representation,
deeming it more acceptable for Assembly Members to discard the views of their voters in favour
of their own views or those of their party.
Keywords
candidates, devolution, policy divisions, representation, voters, Wales
Introduction
We live in an era where the majority of people in Britain do not trust politicians, believe
that they do not care about what ordinary people think, and that they prefer playing party
political games over furthering public interests (Fieldhouse et al., 2016). In fact, politi-
cians are now less trusted than estate agents or bankers, with less than a quarter of people
expecting politicians to tell voters the truth (Ipsos MORI, 2016). While sentiments like
these are of course not unique to Britain (World Economic Forum, 2016), they nonethe-
less raise concerns about the current state of British democracy and the ability of elites to
engage effectively with voters.
University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
Corresponding author:
Siim Trumm, School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham, University Park,
Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
Email: siim.trumm@nottingham.ac.uk
740284BPI0010.1177/1369148117740284The British Journal of Politics and International RelationsTrumm
research-article2017
Original Article
426 The British Journal of Politics and International Relations 20(2)
Against this backdrop of discontent, the political environment in Wales is often portrayed
as being relatively harmonious. Although certainly not without its own divisions, Wales has
shown that cooperation between the main political parties is possible, in a way that coopera-
tion between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party in Westminster seems improbable;
that a broadly supported vision for the pace and extent of devolution can be reached so that
debates on independence are not quite as partisan and divisive as those in Scotland; and that
a formal cross-community power-sharing agreement, like in Northern Ireland, is not neces-
sary to allow unionists and nationalists to work together within the devolved system. Instead,
political debates in Wales are often seen to play out on a slightly narrower ideological spec-
trum, characterised by soft-nationalist cultural politics, devolution-maximising constitutional
reform, and a social democratic policy agenda (Jones and Scully, 2008; Moon, 2013, 2016).
Welsh politicians also have a more positive reputation among voters. In contrast to the
broader trend of disillusionment with politicians, most Welsh voters trust their Assembly
Members and believe in their integrity (Scully and Jones, 2015b).
Recent events, however, provide some evidence that the political environment in Wales
is not particularly consensual after all. Although the 2017 general election in Wales saw a
return to traditional two-party politics,1 one does not have to look hard to find instances of
disconnect between voters and elites. In contrast to the widespread cross-party campaign in
Wales, backing membership of the European Union,2 52.5% of Welsh voters opted instead
to ‘take back control’. The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party and the UK Independence
Party (UKIP) Wales surprised many with their good performances at the 2016 Assembly
election. The political environment in Wales appears to be in flux as voters seem increas-
ingly willing to challenge the status quo. Policy divisions between voters and elites in Wales
may, in fact, be more substantial than often portrayed.
This article looks at the extent to which policy divisions exist between voters and can-
didates in Wales. It does so by using data from the 2016 Welsh Candidate Study and the
2016 Welsh Election Study to compare voters’ and candidates’ views on the policy
agenda, policy positions on a range of issues, and on whose interests Assembly Members
ought to prioritise when carrying out their duties in the National Assembly for Wales. As
such, this article provides a complex account of voter–candidate congruence (or the lack
thereof) at different points of the policy-making process.
The analysis uncovers strong evidence that the relationship between voters and candi-
dates in Wales is not particularly harmonious. Significant differences exist between them
in all three aspects of the policy-making process included in this article. First, voters are
more inclined than candidates to believe that immigration is the most important issue fac-
ing Wales and less likely to say the same of the economy. Second, voters tend to adopt
more authoritarian policy positions than candidates. Third, voters and candidates differ in
their beliefs about whose interests Assembly Members ought to prioritise when carrying
out their duties in the Assembly. Candidates find it considerably more acceptable for
Assembly Members to discard the views of their voters in favour of their own views or
those of their party. Taken together, these differences suggest that the political environ-
ment in Wales is not particularly consensual after all.
The article is organised as follows. First, it describes the different elements of consen-
sus that have been associated with Wales and the recent events that appear to challenge
this consensus. Second, it outlines the different aspects of the policy-making process to
be analysed and discussed in this paper. Third and fourth, it illustrates the data and meas-
ures used in the analysis and presents the empirical findings. Finally, the paper concludes
with a discussion of the implications that emerge from the empirical evidence.
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