Research on early warning system for antidumping petition: based on panel data logit model
| Published date | 04 October 2011 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/17544401111178203 |
| Pages | 158-172 |
| Date | 04 October 2011 |
| Author | Hongjin Xiang,Feng Zongxian,Liu Xuyuan |
| Subject Matter | Economics |
Research on early warning
system for antidumping petition:
based on panel data logit model
Hongjin Xiang
The School of Economy and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha, China
Feng Zongxian
The School of Economy and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University,
Xi’an, China, and
Liu Xuyuan
The National University of Singapore, Singapore
Abstract
Purpose – Based on the American antidumping cases against China, the purpose of this paper is to
construct an early warning model for Chinese exports.
Design/methodology/approach – In order to overcome the drawbacks of the existing early
warning models for antidumping, first, the authors screen out six most relevant indices that play a key
role in US textile corporations’ decision of antidumping petition against China from 2002 to 2006, then
design a early warning system for antidumping petition based on panel data logit model.
Findings – The regression result indicates that unemployment ratio and import-penetration ratio
significantly influence the antidumping filing decisions; when the other invariables keep the same,
with the market share of China textile goods increasing by 1 per cent point, the odds ratio of
antidumping petitions against China textiles increases by about 3.7 per cent.
Originality/value – As far as the authors are aware there is no definite research yet about early
warning system of antidumping events, and this paper aims to specifically address this issue.
Keywords China, United Statesof America, Exports, Textile industry,Antidumping petition,
Early-warningsystem, Logit model, Odds ratio
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
In the past decade, with the rapid increase of China’s exports, the antidumping cases
against China has also increased greatly. From 1995 to 2007, China has become the
country which suffers the most antidumping accusation in the world every year.
The antidumping measures cause millions of dollars economic losses to China every
year. China has become the severe victim of antidumping trade protection form in the
world. How to construct an early warning system of antidumping cases has become an
urgent task, which has enormous theoretical and practical implication.
The European and American economists have done a lot of work on why
antidumping cases around the world increased greatly for recent decades. However,
these researches mainly studied the question from the perspective of importing
countries, and try to explore how the economic, political and institutional factors affect
corporations’ antidumping petition and governments’ antidumping investigation and
decisions. Compared with these researches, the literatures on the early warning system
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
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JCEFTS
4,3
158
Journal of Chinese Economic and
Foreign Trade Studies
Vol. 4 No. 3, 2011
pp. 158-172
qEmerald Group Publishing Limited
1754-4408
DOI 10.1108/17544401111178203
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