Restrained or constrained? Elections, communal conflicts, and variation in sexual violence
| Author | Jana Krause |
| Published date | 01 January 2020 |
| Date | 01 January 2020 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319891763 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Restrained or constrained? Elections,
communal conflicts, and variation
in sexual violence
Jana Krause
Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam
Abstract
Anecdotal evidence suggests that sexual violence varies significantly across cases of election violence and communal
conflicts but systematic research is scarce. Post-election violence is particularly likely if electoral mobilization further
polarizes longstanding communal conflicts and political elites do not instruct security forces to intervene decisively. I
comparatively analyse two prominent cases of post-election violence in Kenya (2007/8) and Nigeria (2008) that
exhibit stark variation in sexual violence. Patrimonial networks and norms of violent masculinity that increase the
probability of (gang) rape were present in both cases and do not explain variation. Civil war research has identified
three explanations for the variation in sexual violence: situational constraints; ordered sexual violence or restraint; and
bottom-up dynamics of sexual violence or restraint. I examine these for the context of post-election violence. I argue
that the type of communal conflict triggered by electoral mobilization explains variation in sexual violence. In Kenya,
pogroms of a majority group against a minority allowed for the time and space to perpetrate widespread sexual
violence while in Nigeria, dyadic clashes between similarly strong groups offered less opportunity but produced a
significantly higher death toll. These findings have important implications for preventing election violence. They
demonstrate that civilian vulnerability is gendered and that high levels of sexual violence do not necessarily corre-
spond to high levels of lethal violence. Ignoring sexual violence means underestimating the real intensity of conflict
and its impact on the political process.
Keywords
communal conflict, election violence, Kenya, Nigeria, rape, sexual violence
Introduction
Election violence is an unfortunately common feature of
many national and local government elections in uncon-
solidated democracies. Most election violence occurs in
the pre-election period to influence the outcome of an
election (Daxecker & Jung, 2018). When post-election
violence does occur, it is more likely to escalate (Straus &
Taylor, 2012). This is particularly the case if electoral
mobilization further polarizes longstanding communal
conflicts (Ho
¨glund, 2009). Kenya’s 2007 presidential
elections pitched a Kikuyu incumbent against a Kalenjin
opposition candidate, which reignited local communal
conflicts between the Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Luo ethnic
groups. Disputed election results and subsequent vio-
lence brought the country to the brink of civil war.
Similarly, in Nigeria, electoral mobilizations on both the
national and local levels regularly trigger communal con-
flicts, resulting in deadly post-election violence, for
example in cities such as Kaduna and Jos in the centre
of the country.
However, the forms of post-election violence may vary
dramatically.In Kenya, the 2007/8 clashes affected several
towns and rural areas in the Rift Valley province and the
capital Nairobi. Within two months, an estimated 1,133
people were killed and atleast 900 cases of rape and other
forms of sexual violence occurred (HRW, 2015).
Reported forms of sexual violence also showed distinct
Corresponding author:
j.krause@uva.nl
Journal of Peace Research
2020, Vol. 57(1) 185–198
ªThe Author(s) 2020
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/0022343319891763
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr
To continue reading
Request your trial