Science–policy dimensions of research on climate change and conflict
| Published date | 01 January 2021 |
| Date | 01 January 2021 |
| Author | Katharine J Mach,Caroline M Kraan |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343320966774 |
| Subject Matter | Viewpoints |
Viewpoints
Science–policy dimensions of research
on climate change and conflict
Katharine J Mach
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami & Leonard and Jayne Abess Center
for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami
Caroline M Kraan
Environmental Science and Policy Graduate Program, Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science
and Policy, University of Miami
Abstract
A large body of research now indicates that climate likely matters for conflict. This climate–conflict scholarship,
however, has involved divergent findings, sometimes strident disagreement, and resulting limits to the usability of the
scholarship for policymakers and practitioners. This viewpoint essay draws from recent expert assessments of
climate–conflict linkages to position the research field among climate change research and assessment more broadly.
We explore potential insights from the climate realm. As is often the case for climate change research, science–society
dynamics are inherent in scholarship on climate and conflict. They contribute to contestation about the state of
knowledge, the best ways to characterize it, and its implications for societal choices and investments. Our critique is
grounded in the literature evaluating policy-relevant climate change assessment across diverse disciplines, from sea-
level-rise adaptation science to energy-system modeling. Through comparisons with such fields, this perspective
article considers several implications for climate–conflict knowledge production. We examine, in particular, the
necessity of integrating diverse lines of evidence to understand the risks of responding to societally relevant uncer-
tainties and priorities, and of encouraging interactions among researchers, practitioners, and policymakers. The
experiences of other climate change disciplines can provide inspiration for potential directions for climate, conflict,
and security scholarship. They include risk framings in integrating underlying evidence, through to options for
supporting the interactions among researchers and societies.
Keywords
climate change, conflict, science-policy interactions
Introduction
Research on the relationship between climate, conflict,
and security has proliferated. This literature has spanned
epistemologies and disciplines and evolved through time
(Busby, 2018a, 2021; Gleditsch, 2021; von Uexkull &
Buhaug, 2021). Across it, a large body of evidence now
indicates that climate in both its variability and its
change likely matters for violent conflict (Adger et al.,
2014; Koubi, 2019; Mach et al., 2019). This scholar-
ship, however, has been typified by divergent, seemingly
contradictory findings and occasionally strident
disagreement about how climate and conflict are linked
(e.g. Buhaug, 2010; Burke et al., 2009; Hsiang & Burke,
2018; Solow, 2013). Many syntheses have attempted
and sometimes struggled to make sense of the current
state of understanding, identifying areas of agreement
and the reasons for disagreement (e.g. Gemenne et al.,
2014; Hsiang, Burke & Miguel, 2013; Ide & Scheffran,
2014; Koubi, 2019; Mach et al., 2019; Salehyan, 2014).
Corresponding author:
kmach@miami.edu
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(1) 168–176
ªThe Author(s) 2020
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320966774
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr
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