Scotland’s Future? The 2021 Holyrood Election
| Date | 01 September 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/20419058211045147 |
| Author | Fraser McMillan,Ailsa Henderson |
| Published date | 01 September 2021 |
SEPTEMBER 2021 • POLITICAL INSIGHT 37
A
century from now, historians
debating the early decades of
the Scottish Parliament could be
forgiven for assuming that little in
the country or the wider world had changed
between its 2016 and 2021 elections. When
polling day came, none of the ve parties that
returned members gained or lost more than
two of the legislature’s 129 seats, 73 of which
are elected in single-member constituencies
and 56 via proportional top-up lists at the
regional level. Furthermore, none of the
ve main parties gained or lost more than a
couple of percentage points nationally.
It is perhaps remarkable that Holyrood’s
electoral and parliamentary arithmetic hardly
budged given the surrounding social and
political maelstrom. The fallout of Brexit, the
COVID pandemic and an explosive political
scandal enveloping the incumbent First
Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her predecessor
Alex Salmond, all failed to meaningfully move
the needle.
Constitutional split
The simple reason for this is that, even when
other issues are reported by voters to be
more salient to them personally, the Scottish
electorate is split down the middle on the
question of the country’s constitutional future
and most people vote in accordance with
their preference on that matter. In the last
four weeks of the campaign and shortly after
polling day, the Scottish Election Study (SES)
surveyed a representative sample of voters
across Scotland. SES data show that, among
the 91 per cent of 2021 voters who indicated
a hypothetical independence referendum
Yes/No vote intention, 92 per cent voted for
a party that aligned with this preference in
their local constituency. Independence is the
central cleavage of devolved Scottish politics
Scotland’s
Future? The
2021 Holyrood
Election
May’s Scottish elections returned the Scottish National Party for a
record fourth consecutive term in office. But the lack of headline
drama masks major shifts in Scotland’s electoral tribes, report
Fraser McMillan and Ailsa Henderson.
and the prism through which most other
issues are interpreted.
The 2021 election results have shifted the
legislative balance of power slightly in favour
of those who back Scottish independence,
reecting a steady but appreciable rise in
support for the cause in recent years. This
hit record polling highs in mid- to late-2020,
with a lead for the Yes to independence side
unprecedented both for its size and sustained
nature, attributable to a combination of
reactions to the 2019 UK General Election
win for the Conservatives and what it meant
for Brexit, an unpopular Prime Minister and
a pandemic bounce for the incumbent SNP
and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Although
No had regained the edge by polling day
as voter preferences reverted somewhat to
their prior defaults, 45 per cent for Yes is now
demonstrably the oor rather than the ceiling
it represented in 2014.
These dynamics benet the pro-
independence parties, particularly the SNP,
and place their constitutional adversaries
at a structural disadvantage. In oce since
2007, the nationalists strengthened their
grip on the single-member constituencies,
© REUTERS/Russell Cheyne / Alamy Stock Photo
Political Insight September 2021.indd 37Political Insight September 2021.indd 37 16/08/2021 15:2316/08/2021 15:23
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