Secessionist conflict and affective polarization: Evidence from Catalonia
| Published date | 01 July 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221088112 |
| Author | Laia Balcells,Alexander Kuo |
| Date | 01 July 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Secessionist conflict and affective
polarization: Evidence from Catalonia
Laia Balcells
Department of Government, Georgetown University
Alexander Kuo
DPIR and Christ Church, Oxford University
Abstract
Can secessionism be a basis for affective or social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements,
their relationship to polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the risk of violent conflict, remains less
understood. We argue that the issue of secession can affectively polarize along both policy and ethnic group lines even
in the case of nonviolent disputes, and posit a number of expectations regarding such secessionist-based polarization.
We test our argument with the case of Catalonia, a substate territory that has experienced a deep secessionist crisis
since 2017, using new data from a panel survey and embedded experiments fielded across two key time periods. We
find that individuals’ secessionist preferences condition high levels of affective polarization, in that pro- and anti-
independence advocates have strong negative views of one another. In addition, there is spillover in terms of
stereotypes of associated language groups (i.e. Catalan, Spanish). Importantly, we find a group of moderates in
between the two policy poles that exhibit far less polarization. Finally, we document the persistence of these overall
patterns. Our results contribute to understanding the underexplored polarization dynamics of secessionist move-
ments, particularly in contexts where high intensity violence (e.g. terrorism, civil war) has not occurred.
Keywords
Catalonia, ethnic conflict, polarization, secessionism, Spain
Introduction
An enduring concern in many multinational states is how
to address secessionist movements. Such demandspit con-
flicting valuesof territorial integrity or constitutional com-
pliance against those of self-determination. While the
current political impasse in Spain regarding the indepen-
dence drive in Catalonia is one of the most salient exam-
ples in the Western press, secessionist movements have
recently been or are still relevant in many democratic or
quasi-democratic countries(e.g. Canada, India, Indonesia,
the United Kingdom). The literature on such movements
has concentrated on their origins, success, and potential
for violence (e.g. Cunningham, 2014; Griffiths, 2016;
Gehring & Schneider, 2020). Recent literatur e hones
more thoroughly on the individual-level correlates of sup-
port for such movements and related parties (e.g.Loewen,
Heroux-Legault & de Miguel, 2015; Mun
˜oz & Tormos,
2015; Hierro & Queralt, 2021). Yet, a key feature of
independence movements that remains less understood
and explored is the corresponding affective polarization
or intergroup animus that can occur within the contested
regions as such movements escalate. In much of the seces-
sionism and civil conflict literature, the existence of group
polarization is assumed to be a cause of conflict, but to
date, theorization and empirical scrutiny of how much
and what forms of polarization are relevant in these con-
texts have been limited.
Social polarization is a problematic aspect of indepen-
dence movements and counter-movements because it
Corresponding author:
laia.balcells@georgetown.edu
Journal of Peace Research
2023, Vol. 60(4) 604–618
ªThe Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/00223433221088112
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr
To continue reading
Request your trial