Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress
| Published date | 01 January 2021 |
| Author | Nina von Uexkull,Halvard Buhaug |
| Date | 01 January 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343320984210 |
| Subject Matter | Introduction |
Introduction
Security implications of climate change:
A decade of scientific progress
Nina von Uexkull
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Halvard Buhaug
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) & Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of
Science and Technology
Abstract
The study of security implications of climate change has developed rapidly from a nascent area of academic inquiry
into an important and thriving research field that traverses epistemological and disciplinary boundaries. Here, we
take stock of scientific progress by benchmarking the latest decade of empirical research against seven core research
priorities collectively emphasized in 35 recent literature reviews. On the basis of this evaluation, we discuss key
contributions of this special issue. Overall, we find that the research community has made important strides in
specifying and evaluating plausible indirect causal pathways between climatic conditions and a wide set of conflict-
related outcomes and the scope conditions that shape this relationship. Contributions to this special issue push the
research frontier further along these lines. Jointly, they demonstrate significant climate impacts on social unrest in
urban settings; they point to the complexity of the climate–migration–unrest link; they identify how agricultural
production patterns shape conflict risk; they investigate understudied outcomes in relation to climate change, such as
interstate claims and individual trust; and they discuss the relevance of this research for user groups across academia
and beyond. We find that the long-term implications of gradual climate change and conflict potential of policy
responses are important remaining research gaps that should guide future research.
Keywords
armed conflict, climate change, literature review, special issue
Introduction
Climate change is widely regarded as humanity’s greatest
contemporary challenge. Thirty years after the Intergo-
vernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published
its First Assessment Report in 1990, an exceptional
growth in interdisciplinary research has progressively
been able to demonstrate that the climate is changing,
that anthropogenic emissions are the dominant cause of
this change, and that both natural and human systems
are impacted by climate change in complex ways. Public
concern about potential security implications of climate
change is high and rising (Pew Research Center, 2019),
aided by the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the
IPCC together with former US Vice President Al Gore
for their work on disseminating knowledge about man-
made climate change. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) concluded unequivocally that ‘[i]ncreasing magni-
tudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, perva-
sive, and irreversible impacts’(Field et al., 2014: 14), and
the Human Security chapter in AR5 further stated that
‘[h]uman security will be progressively threatened as the
climate changes’ (Adger et al., 2014: 758).
Initiatives to address security implications of climate
change are forming in key international fora, such as the
UN Security Council and the European Union (Fetzek
Corresponding author:
nina.von_uexkull@pcr.uu.se
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(1) 3–17
ªThe Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343320984210
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