Sexual Predators in Contest for Public Office: How the American Electorate Responds to News of Allegations of Candidates Committing Sexual Assault and Harassment
| Author | Stephanie Stark,Sofía Collignon |
| Published date | 01 August 2022 |
| Date | 01 August 2022 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1478929921995333 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929921995333
Political Studies Review
2022, Vol. 20(3) 329 –352
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/1478929921995333
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Sexual Predators in Contest
for Public Office: How the
American Electorate Responds
to News of Allegations of
Candidates Committing Sexual
Assault and Harassment
Stephanie Stark and Sofía Collignon
Abstract
Candidate characteristics have an important impact on voter choice, and scandals are found to
negatively impact a political campaign. Yet the literature, with its focus on scandals such as financial
and (consensual) affairs, has failed to look into how allegations of sexual assault and harassment may
impact electability. This study analyzes the effect that allegations of sexual assault or harassment
have on the electoral success of American politicians. Using an original survey experiment, we
find that, on average, American citizens are less likely to support a candidate accused of sexual
assault or sexual harassment. However, not all voters do so to the same magnitude. We find
that Democrats are significantly less likely to support a candidate that faces such allegations.
Republicans do not strongly penalize candidates facing allegations of sexual assault or harassment,
especially if the candidate is identified as a Republican. We analyze open-ended survey responses
to offer an explanation for such variation: a propensity to disbelieve women who speak out
about sexual assault and harassment explains variations in why some voters may not change their
opinion of a candidate based on an allegation.
Keywords
sexual harassment, sexual assault, political behavior, rape myth, representation, vote, elections
Accepted: 26 January 2021
Introduction
In the last few years, many women in the United States have been coming out with stories
about sexual assault and sexual harassment (SASH) within powerful institutions (Maas
et al., 2018). While these allegations have been serious, the fate of the careers of those
Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK
Corresponding author:
Sofía Collignon, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK.
Email: Sofia.Collignon@rhul.ac.uk
995333PSW0010.1177/1478929921995333Political Studies ReviewStark and Collignon
research-article2021
Article
330 Political Studies Review 20(3)
who are politically affiliated and accused have varied, depending on party politics, politi-
cal prospects, and ultimately on the electorate.
The 2016 reveal of the Access Hollywood tape wherein Donald Trump acknowledged
having sexually predatory behavior inspired a stream of women to come out with stories
corroborating his sexually aggressive tendencies (Kurtzleben, 2016). This series of events
inflamed national discourse about women’s bodily autonomy and perceptions of allega-
tions of SASH in American culture. In response to the burgeoning accusations, Trump
accused all the women of making up the stories to bolster the opposition (Sampathkumar,
2017) and labeled the conversation on the tape as “locker room talk” (Maas et al., 2018).
Trump’s political ambitions were not squandered by the negative news, as he was elected
president, yet the allegations continue to prompt regular discourse in the media regarding
his moral character (Dickinson, 2018).
The 2017 contest between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones in the
conservative state of Alabama brought the subject of SASH into prominent public discus-
sion again (Jacobs and Smith, 2017). The media coverage of the election brought to light
accusations from dozens of women claiming Moore had sexually preyed on them as teen-
agers (Bloch et al., 2017) and framed the election as a retest for the American electorate
on the issue of sexual predators in public office. Jones won the election by 1.6 percentage
points, which can also be attributed to Moore’s history of racist comments and actions
and a particularly high voter turnout among African Americans (Bloch et al., 2017). In
light of this narrow win, it is difficult to neatly conclude that the allegations of SASH had
a significant impact on voters’ decisions.
Public conversation on the fitness of public officials accused of SASH grew more sali-
ent during the 2018 nomination of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Dramatic
nomination hearings came to signify the divisive and particularly personal nature of con-
versation in American politics (NYTimes.com, 2018). Despite intense media attention
and public outrage over the nomination of a man accused of sexual assault, Kavanaugh
was confirmed.
Thus, while many of the federal politicians accused of SASH in the United States in
recent years have been forced by party leadership to resign or not to seek re-election, such
as Representatives Patrick Meehan (D-PA), John Conyers (D-Mich), Blake Farenthold
(R-TX), Joe Barton (R-TX), Ruben Kihuen (D-NV), and Al Franken (D-Minn), others
have been able to proceed with their political ambitions without repercussion. These
include Representatives Alcee Hastings (D-AL) and Bobby Scott (D-VA), President
Donald Trump (R), and Justice Brett Kavanaugh (Drew et al., 2018; Garofoli, 2018).
Variations in the effect that allegations of SASH have on the career of politicians suggest
variations in the degree and magnitude in which voters hold politicians accountable for
such actions. This research aims to measure which members of the electorate take allega-
tions of SASH into consideration, if and how allegations impact their choice in an elec-
tion, and why the demographic groups may have differing reactions.
The charges against the politicians accused in recent high-profile cases vary greatly in
severity (Catanese, 2017). For the purposes of this article, we will consider accusations of
SASH as classified in recent high-profile reports in the political arena, such as the cases
mentioned previously involving Representatives Meehan, Conyers, Farenthold, Barton,
Kihuen, Franken, Hastings, Scott, President Trump, and Justice Kavanaugh. The typical
allegation features unwanted touching, groping, and harassment within a relationship of
unequal power.
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