Some Thoughts on Sino-Soviet Relations in the 1980s
| DOI | 10.1177/002070207903400407 |
| Published date | 01 December 1979 |
| Date | 01 December 1979 |
| Author | Steven I. Levine |
| Subject Matter | Article |
STEVEN
I.
LEVINE
Some
thoughts
on
Sino-Soviet
relations
in
the
I98os
China
has
a
way
of
surprising
us.
The
stream
of
unexpected
policy
departures
which
were
a
hallmark
of
the
Mao
Zedong
era
-
the
Great
Leap
Forward and
the
Cultural
Revolution,
the
split
with
Moscow
and
the
rapprochement
with
Washington
-
has
shown
no
signs
of
drying
up
since
Mao
died.
The
major
changes
in
domestic
and
foreign
policies
over
the
past
several
years
indicate
that
the
Chinese
political
system has
still
not produced
a
successful
formula
for
economic
development
and
political stability.
Amidst
the
sharp
turns
and
switchbacks
of
Chinese
politics, the
area
of
Sino-Soviet
relations
stands
out
for
its
seeming
changelessness
over
the
past
twenty
years.
Whence
this
apparent
anomaly?
Are
there
forces
at
work
which
may
alter
the
present
state
of
Sino-Soviet
relations?
I
would
argue
that
cumulative
changes
in
the
Sino-Soviet
rela-
tionship
over
the
past twenty-odd
years,
in
conjunction
with
in-
ternal
changes
in
the
People's
Republic
of
China
(PRc),
have
estab-
lished
the
preconditions
for
a
new
relationship
between
Moscow
and
Beijing.
The
character
of
this
new
relationship
may
be
signifi-
cantly
different
from
that
of
the
one
in
being
since
1949
and
may
be
less
overtly
hostile
than
what
has
appeared
to
be
the
norm
in
the
last two
decades.
Whether,
in
fact,
leaders
in
Moscow
and
Beijing
will
take
the
initiatives
necessary
to
build
such a
new
rela-
tionship
-
and
if
so
how
quickly
-
are
questions
difficult
to address
with
any
assurance.
Certainly
the
potential
for dangerous
conflict
Associate
professor,
School
of
International
Service,
The
American University,
Washington,
nC.
The
author
is
completing
a
study on 'World
Politics
and
Revolu-
tionary
Power
in
China
1945-1949.'
This
article appears
simultaneously
in
German
in
Europa-Archiv,
no
-o
(25
October
1979).
650
INTERNATIONAL
JOURNAL
between
the Chinese
and
the Russians
will
continue
for
the
fore-
seeable
future.
For
a
variety
of
reasons
Soviet
and
Chinese
lead-
ers
may
prefer
to
exploit
each
other's
weaknesses
and
probe
each
other's
vulnerabilities
rather
than
to
pursue
the
path
of
negotia-
tions
and
accept
the
compromises
necessary
to
achieve
accord.
LOOKING
BACKWARDS
A
popular
theme
in
analyses
of
the
Sino-Soviet
conflict
is
the
notion
that
long-standing
historical
enmities lie
at
the
root
of
the
con-
temporary
discord
and
that
the
Sino-Soviet
alliance
of
the
1950S
was
therefore doomed
to
fail.
However,
one
need
not
read
too
deeply
in
the
history
of
Sino-Russian
relations
to
realize
that
in
this
relationship,
as
in
most
others
between
contiguous
states,
there
has
been much
variety.
Periods
of close
co-operation,
the
flow
of
goods
and
ideas,
and
the
pursuit
of
mutual
interests
against
com-
mon
enemies
have
alternated
with
times
of
tension and
conflict.
Measured
against
the
frequent
wars
which
punctuated relations
among
major
actors
in
the
European
state
system
in
the
nineteenth
and
twentieth
centuries, the
relations
between
Russia
and
China
have
been
relatively
pacific.
Instances
of
armed
conflict
have
been
few
and on
a
small
scale.
A
different
theme
emerges
when one
reflects
upon
the
history
of
Sino-Russian
relations.
Russia's
eastward expansion,
particularly
into
the
Transbaikal
region
and the Maritime
Province,
paralleled
the
Qing
dynasty's
conquest
of
Xinjiang,
and
the
movement
of
Han
Chinese
into
Inner
Mongolia
and the
northeast
(Manchuria).'
Vast
territories,
formerly
inhabited
for
the
most
part
by
nomadic,
pas-
toral
peoples,
gradually
filled
with
Russian
and
Han migrants.
Local
principalities
were
absorbed
into
the
imperial
state
systems
anchored
in
St
Petersburg
and
Beijing.
Modern
international
con-
cepts of
sovereignty
and
the
precise
delimitation
of
boundaries
sup-
planted
earlier
notions
of
suzerainty
and
vaguely defined
frontiers.
In
a
word,
long-term,
secular
trends
increased the
potential
for
in-
teraction
between
Russians
and
Chinese,
without determining,
of
course,
either
the
configuration
or
the
content
of
relations.
i
See
Robert
H.G. Lee,
The
Manchurian
Frontier
in
Ch'ing
History
(Cambridge,
Mass,
1970).
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