Stocks’ prices manipulation around national elections?. An event study for the case of Greek banking sector

Publication Date03 May 2016
AuthorSpyridon Repousis
SubjectAccounting & Finance,Financial risk/company failure,Financial crime
Stocks’ prices manipulation
around national elections?
An event study for the case of
Greek banking sector
Spyridon Repousis
Department of Economics, University of Peloponnese, Patras, Greece
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the inuence of major non-economic events such as
the results of ve Greek national Parliamentary elections during 1996-2009 on the Greek banks’ stocks.
Design/methodology/approach – Using daily data from the Athens Stock Exchange, event study
methodology and market model, the results of this paper claim that the ve Greek national
Parliamentary elections during the 1996-2009 period had no statistically signicant effect on the Greek
banks’ stocks. The results show that cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were slightly
positive or negative for Greek banks’ stocks but not statistically signicant at 5 and 10 per cent
condence levels.
Findings – Investors were not surprised and the political information caused no change and no
inuence on the future and course of the stock market. Expected winning political party was the same
as the actual winning political party. Results showed that during pre-event period of 2000 and 2004
Greek national Parliamentary elections, CAARs for Greek banks’ stocks were slightly positive and after
the event period were slightly negative but not statistically signicant at all periods. During 2007 Greek
national Parliamentary elections, the effect of elections changed because CAARs were generally
slightly negative during the pre-event period and positive after the event period. Also, non-statistically
signicant CAARs indicate that there is no evidence that either political party was able to manipulate
bank stocks’ prices for election purposes.
Originality/value – The main contribution of this paper is to provide evidence about effects of
national elections to bank stocks’ prices which have important implications for stockbrokers, investors,
politicians and political analysts.
Keywords Banks, Event study, Greece, Stock returns, Efcient markets
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Political events usually have a major inuence on nancial markets because markets
respond to new information. Investors may revise their expectations, hopes and
investment strategies based on the results of the national elections.
Informational efciency supports that uncertainty about the outcome of elections
may be resolved prior to the actual election date. According to Brown et al. (1988),as
uncertainty is reduced, price changes tend to be positive on average. Elections affect the
stock market only if the outcome of the election is unexpected; hence, it contains new
information. Most of the studies have focused on the US and the UK stock markets and
election date.
JEL classication – G14, G15, G21
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
Journalof Financial Crime
Vol.23 No. 2, 2016
©Emerald Group Publishing Limited
DOI 10.1108/JFC-03-2014-0012

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