Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343321989786 |
| Author | Oguzhan Turkoglu |
| Published date | 01 March 2022 |
| Date | 01 March 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Supporting rebels and hosting refugees:
Explaining the variation in refugee flows
in civil conflicts
Oguzhan Turkoglu
Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin
Abstract
Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical,
political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article,
I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates.
Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the
continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a
sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for
recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in
host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of
refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees
as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable,
matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in
explaining the variation in refugee flows.
Keywords
civil conflict, rebels, refugees, support
Countries vary greatly in space and time in the number
of refugees they host. In 2016, for example, Turkey
hosted more than 2:8 million Syrian refugees, whereas
Saudi Arabia hosted only 19. Similarly, in 1989, Ethio-
pia hosted 87%(384,989) of all Sudanese refugees, but
only 6%(23,516) in 2009. Why do some countries host
more refugees than others?
The variation in refugee flows poses an empirical puz-
zle as the existing literature can only explain it to a certain
degree. Previous studies have focusedon the ‘push’ factors
in the source country, the ‘pull’ factors in the host coun-
tries, and dyadic determinants such as geographical, his-
torical, and political relations. Little attention, however,
has been paid to the particular dynamics of civil conflicts.
The literaturehas treated civil conflicts as uniform, largely
ignoring their distinct aspects. Yet, understanding these
varying dynamicsis critical since most refugees comefrom
countries in conflict.
Here, I argue that the particular aspects of civil con-
flicts – who is fighting whom and who is backing them –
are a key answer to this puzzle. In this study, I show that
refugee flows vary depending on the host country’s invol-
vement in the conflict. In particular, countries that sup-
port rebels host a larger number of refugees than others.
The main rationale for foreign countries to support
rebels is to empower them to win the conflict, as a vic-
tory for rebels is also one for the supporting country.
Accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that
support and help rebel groups win the conflict. By host-
ing refugees, countries offer a sanctuary for rebels and
their families. Refugee camps can serve as ‘refugee war-
rior communities’ – a base for the armed group. In these
Corresponding author:
turkoglo@tcd.ie
Journal of Peace Research
2022, Vol. 59(2) 136–149
ªThe Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343321989786
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