Swaying citizen support for EU membership: Evidence from a survey experiment of German voters
| Author | Nikoleta Yordanova,Mariyana Angelova,Sander Renes,Moritz Osnabrügge,Roni Lehrer |
| Published date | 01 September 2020 |
| Date | 01 September 2020 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1465116520923735 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
Swaying citizen support
for EU membership:
Evidence from a survey
experiment of
German voters
Nikoleta Yordanova
Institute of Political Science, Leiden University, Leiden, The
Netherlands
Mariyana Angelova
Department of Government, University of Vienna, Vienna,
Austria
Roni Lehrer
Mannheim Centre for European Social Research, University
of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
Moritz Osnabru
¨gge
Department of Government, London School of Economics
and Political Science, London, UK
Sander Renes
Department of Business Economics, Erasmus University
Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Abstract
The United Kingdom’s 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU)
raised concerns that other countries would follow suit. This article examines how
arguments about EU membership related to economic, cultural, political, and security
Corresponding author:
Nikoleta Yordanova, Leiden University, Institute of Political Science, Wijnhaven, Turfmarkt 99, 2511 DP The
Hague, The Netherlands.
Email: n.yordanova@fsw.leidenuniv.nl
European Union Politics
2020, Vol. 21(3) 429–450
!The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/1465116520923735
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and peace issues could influence how citizens would vote in EU membership referen-
dums. Our two-wave survey experiment on a random sample of the German popula-
tion and difference-in-differences analysis revealed that only fears of being outvoted in
EU decision-making swayed German voters’ attitudes about EU membership, particu-
larly voters with weaker EU support, little EU knowledge and low levels of political
engagement. We therefore conclude that concerns about sovereignty loss can be
drivers of Euroscepticism even in a country that has vast influence over EU decisions.
Keywords
Dexit, European Union, framing, sovereignty loss, sur vey experiment
Introduction
The United Kingdom’s (UK’s) ‘Brexit’ referendum of 23 June 2016 was the first
time an electoral majority voted to leave the European Union (EU). This raised
concerns that other member states might put their EU membership to a public vote
and ultimately leave the union. Populist and right-wing parties have gained
momentum in many member states; these parties have questioned the integration
process and in some cases advocate EU membership referendums (see e.g.
Alternative for Germany, AfD, 2019: 12). It is therefore important to understand
what types of arguments in EU exit discussions can sway voters’ opinions about
EU membership and which voters are most susceptible to specific arguments in the
remaining member states.
Previous studies have shown how economic (e.g. Eichenberg and Dalton, 1993;
Gabel, 1998a, 1998b; Gabel and Whitten, 1997) and cultural (e.g. Abbarno and
Zapryanova, 2013; Bruter, 2005; Carey, 2002; Kuhn, 2015; McLaren, 2002) factors
influence public support towards the EU. Furthermore, research on how country-
specific factors shape citizens’ views about European integration (e.g. De Vries,
2018; Sa
´nchez-Cuenca, 2000) has shown that citizens’ support for the EU is neg-
atively related to their evaluation of the quality of their national government and
economic conditions. However, prior studies have largely overlooked the stability
of EU attitudes (Hobolt and De Vries, 2016: 426). Existing research shows that
generally pro-EU arguments increase (and anti-EU arguments decrease) EU sup-
port (Abbarno and Zapryanova, 2013; Gabel and Scheve, 2007; Karstens, 2019;
Maier et al., 2012; Medrano, 2003; Schuck and De Vreese, 2006; Vliegenhart et al.,
2008). Yet, we know little about the conditions under which given arguments can
change EU public opinion, or whether specific arguments are more persuasive than
others.
Recently, Goodwin et al. (2020) proposed that the magnitude of framing effects
depends on their level of novelty in a given context. They analysed how pro-
Remain and pro-Leave arguments derived from the competing Brexit campaigns
430 European Union Politics 21(3)
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