Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable Peace
| Author | Joshua Fisher,Peter T. Coleman,Larry S. Liebovitch |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12680 |
| Published date | 01 June 2019 |
| Date | 01 June 2019 |
Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing
and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable
Peace
Peter T. Coleman
The Earth Institute and Teachers College, Columbia University
Larry S. Liebovitch
Queens College, City University of New York
Joshua Fisher
The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Abstract
The recent United Nation Secretary General’s report on sustaining peace speaks to an urgent crisis of complexity in global
affairs, where a wide assortment of nonstate actors wields more political power than ever before. In this context, the interna-
tional community’s traditional ways of forecasting, planning, policymaking, and assessing impact are becoming rapidly obso-
lete. In response, policymakers are calling for more holistic or systemic approaches to peace and development. Unfortunately,
these proposed changes are merely ‘systems light’, essentially a metaphorical characterization of peace systems where their
component parts are seen as interconnected and complicated. This form of systems thinking is insufficiently informed by
more sophisticated methods from complexity science. This article will illustrate how two methods derived from complexity
science, causal loop diagramming and mathematical modeling, can help us understand the properties and dynamics of inter-
vention in complex peace systems. Causal loop diagrams help us to identify the peace factors and the connections between
them. Mathematical modeling helps us determine the quantitative results of the interactions between all the peace factors.
Using these methods together can lead to new insights for peacebuilding and for mitigating the unintended consequences of
well intended policies.
The geopolitical world is becoming increasingly more com-
plex, volatile, and unpredictable. According to former head
of UN Peacekeeping Jean Marie Guehenno, today there are
seismic shifts in world order from one of hegemony and
bilateralism, through multilateralism, to a new crisis of com-
plexity (Guehenno, 2016). In this highly interconnected new
order, nonstate actors such as corporations, billionaires, non-
governmental organizations, terrorists, and computer hack-
ers wield more power in the political realm than ever
before. Augmenting the proliferation of complexity is the
exponential increase in the flow of information. In 1900,
knowledge doubled every century. Today, it doubles about
once a year, with IBM predicting that soon it will double
every 12 hours (Coles et al., 2006). Adding to this, the
increasing role disinformation plays on the geopolitical
stage (Crilley, 2018), and there is a sense of the current con-
text wherein the international community’s traditional ways
of thinking, policymaking, and making assessments are
becoming rapidly ineffectual and obsolete.
In response to this increasing complexity and volatility,
policymakers are calling for more systemic approaches to
peace and development. A new SG Report on Peacebuilding
and Sustaining Peace (2018) highlights the need for ‘a sys-
tem-wide approach from the United Nations and for close
collaboration with partners...to ensure a coordinated,
coherent, integrated and results-oriented response’(United
Nations 2018, p. 3). Similarly, the 2017 Positive Peace report
portends, ‘... new and unique approaches for applying sys-
tems thinking to the nation-state to better understand how
societies work, how to manage the challenges they face,
and how to improve overall wellbeing’(Institute for Eco-
nomics and Peace 2017, p. 35). Likewise, Jeffrey Sachs char-
acterized the conceptualization and implementation of the
17 Sustainable Development Goals as incorporating ‘interdis-
ciplinary complex systems dynamics’(Sachs, 2015). This shift
from understanding the pieces of peace to the whole sys-
tem is promising.
Unfortunately, these proposed changes are merely varia-
tions of ‘systems light’: metaphorical characterizations of
peace and development systems where their component
parts are seen as connected and complicated. This form of
systems thinking is not wrong, but it is insufficiently
©2019 University of Durham and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Global Policy (2019) 10:Suppl.2 doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12680
Global Policy Volume 10 . Issue Supplement 2 . June 2019
84
Special Issue Article
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