Temporal evolution of homicide mortality in Brazilian capitals from 2005 to 2019
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JACPR-08-2021-0623 |
| Published date | 30 December 2021 |
| Date | 30 December 2021 |
| Pages | 201-214 |
| Subject Matter | Health & social care,Criminology & forensic psychology,Aggression,conflict & peace,Sociology,Gender studies,Gender violence,Political sociology,policy & social change,Social conflicts,War/peace |
| Author | Nádia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues,Valéria Teresa Saraiva Lino,Leonardo Soares Bastos,Gisele O'Dwyer,Denise Leite Maia Monteiro,Inês Nascimento Carvalho Reis,Vera Cecília Frossard,Mônica Kramer Noronha Andrade |
Temporal evolution of homicide mortality
in Brazilian capitals from 2005 to 2019
N
adia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues, Valéria Teresa Saraiva Lino, Leonardo Soares Bastos,
Gisele O’Dwyer, Denise Leite Maia Monteiro, Inês Nascimento Carvalho Reis,
Vera Cecília Frossard and Mônica Kramer Noronha Andrade
Abstract
Purpose –This study aims to improve our understanding of violence, focusing on the analysis of the
relationbetween socioeconomic factorsand homicide rates from 2005 to 2019 in Braziliancapitals.
Design/methodology/approach –Multilevel Poissonmodels were used to estimate the homicide riskin
men and women. The response variable was the homicide rate. Fixed effects were estimated for age
group, yearand gross domestic product (GDP).
Findings –The average homiciderate over the 2005–2019 period was 5.83/100,000 and83.72/100,000
for women and men, respectively. In both sexes, the homicide rates increased over the period. The
highest mortalityrates were observed in North and Northeastern capitals. The peakhomicide rates were
2010–2014, the risk ofhomicide decreased as age increased, and the capitalswith GDP lower than US
$5,000showed a greater homicide rate.
Originality/value –Brazil remains among the countries with the highest risk of homicide,especially in
the north and northeast regions, where socioeconomic conditions are more unfavorable. The
improvementof socioeconomic conditionsmay contribute to changing this situation.
Keywords Homicide, Aggression, Epidemiology, Mortality, Socioeconomicfactors, Violence exposure
Paper type Research paper
Background
In most vulnerable classes, such as people with the worst socioeconom ic conditions, the
highest homicide rates are observed (PAHO, 2010). This situation de monstrates the need for a
more in-depth analysis that takes into account the diversity of different sociode mographic
contexts to better understand the risk of homicide in Brazil. Homicide rates have been
dropping slowly for a quarter of a century. From 1993 to 2017, the rate of homicide worldwide
dropped from 7.4 to 6.1 victims per 100,000 (UNODC, 2019). The vast majority of homicides
(around 95%) occur in the Americas, Africa and Asia, whereas 5% a nd 0.3% occur in Europe
and Oceania, respectively (UNODC, 2014).
Previous works in this area indicate the relation between social disorganization and
homicide (Kawachi et al.,1999;Peres and Nivette, 2017). Socioeconomic inequalities in
homicides are a universal phenomenon not only in Brazil but alsoin other countries (Stickley
et al.,2012
). In Recife, northeast of Brazil, positive relationships with homicide were found
for inequality, rented houses and quantity of people (Pereira et al.,2017). In Bahia,
northeast of Brazil, positive associations were found between homicides and income,
unemployment, educationand inequality (Souza et al., 2020).
In Brazil, the homicide rates remained stable from 1990 to 2015, however specifically the
homicides by firearms increased by 27.5% over the period (15.5 for 19.3/100,000) (Malta
et al.,2017
). The apparent stability in homicide rates hides greatregional disparities among
(Informationabout the
authorscan be found at the
end of this article.)
Received 3 August 2021
Revised 14 September 2021
26 October 2021
Accepted 17 November 2021
Declaration of interest: All
authors have no conflicts of
interest to declare.
DOI 10.1108/JACPR-08-2021-0623 VOL. 14 NO. 3 2022,pp. 201-214, ©Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1759-6599 jJOURNAL OF AGGRESSION, CONFLICT AND PEACE RESEARCH jPAGE 201
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