The Analysis of Threats
| Author | J.C. Garnett |
| Published date | 01 December 1971 |
| Date | 01 December 1971 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/004711787100301205 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
1003
THE
ANALYSIS
OF
THREATS
J. C. GARNETT
Defence
policy,
when
it
is
not
a
euphemism
for
military
policy
in
general,
is
usually
designed
to
meet
those
present
and
forseeable
threats
which
governments
believe
they
face
in
a
world
which,
if
not
actively
hostile,
is
sometimes
apathetic
towards
the
fate
of
those
who
cannot
help
themselves.
Determining
the
exist-
ence
of
these
threats
and
assessing
their
seriousness
is,
therefore,
the
first - and
perhaps
the
most
important
-
task
of
any
defence
department.
Indeed,
it
is
only
in
the
light
of
judgments
which
are
made
about
the
nature
and
extent
of
threats
that
defence
policy
has
any
meaning
at
all.
It
should
be
recognised
at
the
outset,
however,
that
not
all
the
threats
which
a
society
may
face
can
be
countered
by
a
military
response.
Sometimes
states
are
undermined
by
revolutionary
ideas
and
the
powerful
social
forces
which
they
unleash.
To
these
non-
military
threats
a
military
response
may
be
inappropriate
and
ineffective.
This
article
is
limited,
therefore,
to
the
analysis
of
those
threats
which
are
posed
by
the
military
power
of
foreign
states.
Because
the
assumptions
which
are
made
about
the
nature
of
perceived
threats
form
the
premises
on
which
defence
policy
is
built,
it
is
inevitable
that
critics
should look
carefully
into
the
way
in
which
governments
interpret
the
threats
made
by
potential
enemies.
Of
course,
defence
policies
are
criticised
from
a
variety
of
perspectives;
sometimes
on
the
grounds
that
although
the
govern-
ment
has
correctly
assessed
the
threat,
the
measures
proposed
to
deal
with
it
are
inadequate
or
excessive;
sometimes
on
the
grounds
that
although
the
government
has
correctly
assessed
the
threat
and
designed
an
appropriate
policy
to
deal
with
it,
the
expenditure
required
to
implement
the
policy
represents
a
misallocation
of
scarce
resources.
(This
is
another
way
of
saying
that
the
govern-
ment
has
got
its
priorities
wrong.)
But
perhaps
the
most
frequent
criticism
of
particular
defence
policies
is
that
they
are
mistaken
because
the
threat
they
are
designed
to
counter
has
been
mis-
perceived.
These
days
it
is
fashionable
for
those
who
use
this
argument
to
maintain
that
the
threat
has
been
grossly
exaggerated,
but
occasionally
critics
have
accused
governments
of
underestima-
ting
the
threats
which
their
country
faced.
All
of
this
is
simply
intended
to
indicate
the
importance
of
the
question
’Defence
against
what?’.
It
is
not
intended
to
suggest
that
the
writer
has
any
answers
up
his
sleeve.
Indeed,
in
this
article
the
writer
is
not
particularly
concerned
with
answers,
important
as
they
undoubtedly
are.
Rather
is
he
interested
in
investigating
the
way
in
which
we
think
about
the
question.
Our
conceptual
framework
for
thinking
about
threats
is
a
very
crude
one
and
it
may be
worthwhile
to
expose
some
of
the
difficulties
and
ambiguities
which
are
likely
to
be
experienced
by
planners
who,
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