The Brexit deterrent? How member state exit shapes public support for the European Union
| Author | Sara B Hobolt,Hermann Schmitt,Wouter Van der Brug,Sebastian Adrian Popa |
| DOI | 10.1177/14651165211032766 |
| Published date | 01 March 2022 |
| Date | 01 March 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
The Brexit deterrent? How
member state exit shapes
public support for the
European Union
Sara B Hobolt
Department of Government, London School of Economics and
Political Science, London, UK
Sebastian Adrian Popa
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, University of
Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Wouter Van der Brug
Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam,
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Hermann Schmitt
Faculty of Humanities, University of Manchester,
Manchester, UK
The Mannheim Centre for European Social Research,
University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
Abstract
What are the effects on public support for the European Union (EU) when a member
state exits? We examine this question in the context of Britain’s momentous decision to
leave the EU. Combining analyses of the European Election Study 2019 and a unique sur-
vey-embedded experiment conducted in all member states, we analyse the effect of
Brexit on support for membership among citizens in the EU-27. The experimental evi-
dence shows that while information about the negative economic consequences of
Brexit had no significant effect, positive information about Britain’s sovereignty
Corresponding author:
Sara B Hobolt, Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton
Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK.
Email: s.b.hobolt@lse.ac.uk
Article
European Union Politics
2022, Vol. 23(1) 100–119
© The Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/14651165211032766
journals.sagepub.com/home/eup
significantly increased optimism about leaving the EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit
acts as a benchmark for citizens’evaluations of EU membership across EU-27, and
that it may not continue to act as a deterrent in the future.
Keywords
Benchmark, Brexit, Euroscepticism, experiment, public opinion
Introduction
The European Union (EU) has been faced with several crises over the past decades,
including the Euro crisis, the refugee crisis and the coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19) pandemic. While most of these crises were in some way caused by external
developments, one was internal, namely Brexit. The United Kingdom’s (UK) 2016
referendum decision to leave the EU was unprecedented. But while the UK is the first
member state to leave the EU, this decision can also be seen in the broader context of
a growing politicization of the EU and its institutions across its member states (De
Vries, 2018; De Vries et al., 2021; Hobolt and De Vries, 2016; Hooghe and Marks,
2009; Hutter et al., 2016; Van der Brug et al., 2022). Indeed, the result of the Brexit
referendum initially lead Eurosceptic parties in other European nations to call for their
own membership referendums. Among supporters of the EU, this sparked fears of poli-
tical contagion across Europe. This raises the question: What is the effect of Brexit on
public support for the EU in other member states?
We examine this question in the context of Britain’s prolonged process of leaving the
EU and negotiating a new relationship with the EU. Has Brexit inspired followers else-
where on the continent or does it act as a deterrent? This question is relevant not only to
understand the short-term effect of Brexit, but also because Brexit marks a critical junc-
ture for Britain and for the remaining member states. What are the consequences for the
EU, that is used to countries queuing up to join the club, when one of its largest members
decides to leave? This article argues that a member state leaving the EU is a significant
‘benchmark’heuristic that shapes the evaluations of membership in the remaining
member states. Building on benchmarking theory, we argue that citizens compare the
benefits of membership to the alternative state of being outside the Union (De Vries
2018; see also Hobolt, 2009; Kayser and Peress 2012; Hobolt and De Vries, 2016; De
Vries 2017). Such comparisons may involve not only an assessment of the quality of
national institutions, but also across nations as they assess the potential costs and poten-
tial benefits of exiting the Union.
Hence, our argument is that Brexit acts as a benchmark for citizens evaluating the pro-
spects for their own nation outside the EU, and in turn their support for membership.
When the consequences of Brexit are viewed negatively, support for the EU goes up,
but when Brexit is viewed as a success, support decreases. During the prolonged
Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU, the Brexit benchmark heuristic was
mainly one of deterrence, since they clearly illustrated that leaving the EU is far from
uncomplicated (Walter, 2020). However, as with any benchmark, this can change if
Hobolt et al. 101
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