The British General Election of 2019: Was it Boris Wot Won it?
| Author | Robert Ford,Will Jennings,Paula Surridge,Tim Bale |
| DOI | 10.1177/20419058221091630 |
| Published date | 01 March 2022 |
| Date | 01 March 2022 |
10 POLITICAL INSIGHT • APRIL 2022
It is now more than two years since
the United Kingdom went to the
polling stations on a cold December
day, returning Boris Johnson to
Number Ten Downing Street with both a
clear mandate to ‘Get Brexit Done’ and the
parliamentary majority needed to do so.
While the events of the COVID pandemic
mean it now feels like a lifetime ago, the
interpretation of the 2019 election remains
hotly contested. Would the realignment
of British politics have been possible
without Boris Johnson and his apparently
unique appeal to voters in the so-called
‘Red Wall’ – the hitherto Labour-held
constituencies in the North of England
and Midlands that typically had voted to
leave the EU in 2016, identified by polling
analyst James Kanagasooriam? Or have
accounts giving centre stage to Johnson’s
personal charisma and the fall of the ‘Red
Wall’ tended to marginalise other factors
– most obviously structural changes in
voting behaviour and electoral geography,
and the vastly weakened opponent the
Conservatives faced in 2019?
In
The British General Election of 2019
,
the 21st volume in a series that began
chronicling British general elections in
1945, we offer a comprehensive analysis
of how the election was won. Our analysis
offers some lessons for those looking
forward to the next general election – one
in which voters’ decisions may be shaped
The British General
Election of 2019: Was
it Boris Wot Won it?
Robert Ford, Tim Bale, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge look back at
the 2019 General Election – and find that the popular narrative about
Boris Johnson’s unique appeal to new Conservative voters is more
complicated than often assumed.
by experience of the COVID pandemic,
their views on the conduct of the PM and
government over the ‘partygate’ affair, and
what look like harsh economic headwinds
ahead.
The Brexit realignment
Brexit was a clear influence on the choices
voters made in 2019. As Figure 1 shows,
the Conservatives (helped by Nigel Farage’s
decision to stand down Brexit Party
candidates in Tory-held seats) were able to
consolidate the Leave vote, with three in
four Leave voters voting Conservative. In
contrast, Labour managed to secure just
half of the Remain vote. It is noteworthy
that even in this ‘Brexit election’ the
Conservatives also won one in four votes
among Remainers. For many of these
‘softer’ Tory Remainers, fear of a Corbyn-led
government trumped opposition to Brexit.
The consolidation of Leave support
powered many of the Conservative
© Colin McPherson / Alamy Stock Photo
Political Insight April 2022 BU.indd 10Political Insight April 2022 BU.indd 10 01/03/2022 10:2801/03/2022 10:28
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