THE CONDITIONS FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF THE SPIRAL
| Published date | 01 June 1958 |
| Author | E. H. PHELPS BROWN |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1958.tb00359.x |
| Date | 01 June 1958 |
THE CONDITIONS FOR
THE
AVOIDANCE
OF
THE
SPIRAL
THOUGH
their suggestions differ in other respects, Mr. Flanders and
Mr. Robertson have in common the proposal that distinct functions
should be assigned to local and to industry-wide bargaining.
I
believe
this proposal is a fruitful one: in particular,
I
believe that in Mr.
Robertson’s case for the development of local agreements there lie
constructive possibilities for the improvement of our industrial rela-
tions. But
I
doubt whether the proposed arrangements would enable
us
to keep the full employment we have known in the past twelve
years without the price-cost spiral that has hitherto accompanied it.
Let me give my reasons in each instance.
Mr. Flanders suggests that a tripartite national conference should
endeavour to agree year by year on a programme of wage changes,
to be recommended for adoption by the parties to the existing pro-
cedures for bargaining and regulation
;
through these procedures also
the wage structure within each industry might be adjusted from time
to time, but such adjustments must not be allowed to raise pay in the
aggregate. But
I
do not see what safeguards there are here to prevent
money wages being continually raised through the programme, or the
structure, or both,
so
long as effective demand is tending to pull wages
up. In many recent years the possibility of a rise in wages has not
been discernible by knowledgeable negotiators alone but has been
plain for the individual workman to see every day in the workshop-
the overtime, the anxiety of management to secure recruits. the relative
importance it attaches to keeping costs down and getting output up,
all these must have made it clear that a rise was in the cards. In such
times the officers of a union cannot practise wage restraint for long,
or they will lose control
;
and even if negotiated rates are held back,
a wage drift will set in.
I
think Mr. Flanders would check the drift
by having compulsory arbitration strengthen the hands of those em-
ployers who were not disposed to take part in it, and employers’
associations discipline those who were: but what of the strike against
an award? and what
of
the fudging
of
wage books?
I
do not believe
that either trade unions or employers’ associations possess within
themselves an authority that would enable them to stop their members
raising wages when both employer and employed are moved to raise
them-that
is,
so
long as there is excess demand.
Mr. Robertson would have industry-wide negotiations deal only
with minimum wages, which should be regulated in the light
of
equity,
145
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