The crime drop and the changing face of commercial victimization: Reflections on the ‘commercial crime drop’ in the UK and the implications for future research
| Author | Matt Hopkins |
| Published date | 01 September 2016 |
| Date | 01 September 2016 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1748895816628930 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Criminology & Criminal Justice
2016, Vol. 16(4) 410 –430
© The Author(s) 2016
Reprints and permissions:
sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav
DOI: 10.1177/1748895816628930
crj.sagepub.com
The crime drop and the
changing face of commercial
victimization: Reflections on
the ‘commercial crime drop’ in
the UK and the implications for
future research
Matt Hopkins
Leicester University, UK
Abstract
A growing body of research has both described and forwarded hypotheses to account for the crime
drop that has been observed in many western countries since 1995. Commentators have focused
on falls observed for households and individuals, with little reflection on the commercial sector.
This is surprising given that previous research has recognized both the high rate of crime against
some business sectors and the potential impact of crime against more economically vulnerable
enterprises. This article explores the crime drop in relation to businesses in England and Wales. It
considers whether there is evidence of a crime drop, the extent to which this appears to mirror the
patterns observed for households/individuals and presents some tentative hypotheses to explain the
patterns observed. Some suggestions are also made for areas that require further research.
Keywords
Commercial victimization, crime drop, security hypothesis
Introduction
A body of research has identified that there have been substantial falls in crime in the
western world since the mid-1990s and various explanations have been offered as to why
Corresponding author:
Matt Hopkins, Department of Criminology, The Friars, Leicester University, 154 Upper New Walk,
Leicester, LE1 7QA, UK.
Email: mh330@le.ac.uk
628930CRJ0010.1177/1748895816628930Criminology & Criminal JusticeHopkins
research-article2016
Article
Hopkins 411
these falls occurred (see Farrell et al., 2010; Levitt, 2004; Van Dijk et al., 2012). The
‘crime drop’ was first observed in the USA with falls in violent crime, although significant
falls have also been observed across many European countries and further afield in Japan,
Canada and Australia (Farrell et al., 2011a). Through their analysis of the International
Crime Victimization Survey data, Van Dijk and Tseloni (2012) illustrate that the volume
of crime appeared to peak across many western countries in 1995 and that significant falls
have since been witnessed. In England and Wales, Britten et al. (2012) identify that
between 1995 and 2011 overall crime decreased from 19 million offences to 7 million,
with reductions in burglary, vehicle theft and violence of 57 per cent, 72 per cent and 47
per cent respectively. The long-term trends in all British Crime Survey crime in England/
Wales from 1981 to 2014 for burglary, vehicle-related theft and violence are presented in
Figure 1. This suggests that the trends observed by Britten et al. (2012) appear to be con-
tinuing as there are declines across all of these types of crime post-2011.
Farrell et al. (2010: 24) lament the ‘absence of adequate explanation’ in relation to the
crime drop. They note that while a number of explanatory hypotheses can be located in
the literature, many are only ‘partially tested’ and others remain untested. Partially tested
hypotheses include: demographic change; increased prison populations; policing strate-
gies; more police; gun control; changing drugs markets; increased abortion; stronger
economies; and lead exposure (also see Farrell, 2013; Van Dijk et al., 2012). Untested
hypotheses include (for example): increased religiosity; cultural change; immigration;
and improvements in crime scene investigation. However, Farrell et al. (2010) forward
two primary criticisms of the crime drop literature. First, they argue that many of the
partially tested hypotheses lack external validity in that they are not applicable interna-
tionally to all nation-states where a crime drop has been observed (for example,
Figure 1. Trends in crime in England/Wales: Burglary, vehicle-related theft and violence
(1981–2014): indexed at 1981.
Source: base data: BCS and CSEW (British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales) crime
incident data 1981 to 2014.
To continue reading
Request your trial