The democratic dividend of nonviolent resistance
| Author | Felix S Bethke,Markus Bayer,Daniel Lambach |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343316658090 |
| Date | 01 November 2016 |
| Published date | 01 November 2016 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
The democratic dividend of
nonviolent resistance
Markus Bayer, Felix S Bethke & Daniel Lambach
Institute of Political Science, University of Duisburg-Essen
Abstract
Research suggests that nonviolent resistance (NVR) campaigns are more successful in deposing dictators than
armed rebellions. However, ousting dictators is only the first step in the process of democratization. After
deposing an autocratic regime, societies enter a transition phase where they must learn to consolidate the gains
of democracy and bargain about the new rules of the democratic regime. But even if free, fair, and competitive
elections are held, indicating a successful transition to democratic rule, uncertainty about its stability remains
salient. In the period that follows, either democracy survives and proves to be resilient, or an autocratic backslide
occurs. In this article, we analyze the effect of NVR campaigns on the survival of democratic regimes. Building on
the literature on modes of transitions and nonviolent resistance, we argue that those democratic regimes that
come into being as a result of a NVR campaign are less prone to democratic breakdown. The main mechanism
which produces this effect is that the organizational culture of NVR campaigns spills over to the subsequent
democratic regime fostering conditions favorable for democratic survival. We test the effect of NVR campaigns
on democratic regime survival using survival analysis and propensity score matching. The results show that
democratic regimes that experience NVR during the transition phase survive substantially longer than regimes
without NVR.
Keywords
democracy, democratization, nonviolent resistance, political violence, social movements
Introduction
Since the so-called Arab Spring, there has been a growing
interest in the causes and consequences of nonviolent
resistance (NVR) campaigns. These campaigns mainly
involve unarmed people, using a combination of peace-
ful tactics such as strikes, sit-ins, and demonstrations to
achieve political goals. Resistance campaigns associated
with the Arab Spring considerably differed with regard to
their use of violence. Whereas the Jasmine Revolution in
Tunisia and the Egypt Revolution are usually considered
as predominantly nonviolent, the initially nonviolent
protests in Libya and Syriasoonevolvedintoarmed
rebellions, which led to thousands of deaths. In terms
of successful transition to democracy, the record of these
cases is mixed. Uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya
led to the ousting of long-term dictators, but at the time
of writing, the Syrian uprising did not manage to depose
the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
1
Furthermore, ousting
dictators is only the first step in the process of democra-
tization. After deposing an autocratic regime, societies
enter a transition phase where they must consolidate the
gains of democracy and bargain about the new rules of
the democratic regime. But even if free, fair, and com-
petitive elections are held, which indicate a successful
transition to democratic rule, uncertainty about its sta-
bility remains salient. In the period that follows, either
democracy survives and proves to be resilient, or an auto-
cratic backslide occurs.
1
For a more detailed description of these cases see Chenoweth &
Stephan (2014) and Nepstad (2013).
Corresponding author:
felix-sebastian.bethke@uni-due.de
Journal of Peace Research
2016, Vol. 53(6) 758–771
ªThe Author(s) 2016
Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343316658090
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