THE DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION AND ACCELERATED ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISITED
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1988.mp50002006.x |
| Author | A. T. Flegg |
| Date | 01 May 1988 |
| Published date | 01 May 1988 |
OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, 50,2(1988)
0305-9049 $3.00
THE DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF INCOME
REDISTRIBUTION AND ACCELERATED
ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISrIED
A. T Flegg*
I. INTRODUCTION
Following the pioneering statistical analysis by Repetto (1974), several
authors have used international cross-sectional data in an attempt to quantify
the relationship between fertility and the distribution of incomes.1 Repetto's
hypothesis that greater equality would lead to lower natality in the Third
World was confirmed in a later study employing a more sophisticated
approach (Repetto, 1978), as well as by the econometric findings of
Morawetz (1978), Winegarden (1978) and Flegg(1979).2 Moreover, Repetto
(1979) found additional support for his thesis in an analysis of census data
for households in Puerto Rico and South Korea.
However, the emerging consensus regarding the demographic con-
sequences of inequality was disturbed by the findings of Boulier (1982). In
addition to casting doubt upon the validity of Repetto's findings for Puerto
Rico, Boulier adduced evidence of his own - based upon a study of Filipino
households - directly contradicting Repetto's hypothesis. Moreover, in a
sophisticated analysis published in a recent issue of this BULLETIN,
Winegarden (1984) was able to demonstrate that an egalitarian redistribution
of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase
in fertility! Winegarden also derived some interesting implications concerning
both the impact on fertility of state-supported family-planning programmes
and the demographic consequences of faster economic growth vis-à-vis a
redistribution of incomes.
In view of the important policy issues addressed in Winegarden's paper,
and the fact that it casts doubt upon the validity of all previous econometric
studies based on international cross-sectional data, it seems worthwhile to re-
examine in some detail the statistical basis of his conclusions.
II. WINEGARDEN'S MODEL
Before considering Winegarden's statistical findings, it may be helpful to
comment briefly on the structure of his model and its implications for estima-
* The author would like to thank Professor Winegarden for making available the data used in
his study. Leung Chin and Chris Webber provided helpful suggestions.
For a comprehensive review of such studies, see Flegg (1984).
2See Flegg (1980) for a critique of Repetto's second study.
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