The Electronic Library Manager's guide to sociocultural trends
| Date | 01 February 1994 |
| Pages | 75-77 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb045276 |
| Published date | 01 February 1994 |
| Author | David Raitt |
| Subject Matter | Information & knowledge management,Library & information science |
Editorial
The Electronic Library
Manager's guide to
sociocultural trends
David Raitt
This editorial, which synthesises many different published
sources and references, tries to anticipate the world over the
next 25 years or so in terms of population growth and in-
creased life expectancy, as well as working conditions and
education, and looks at how these will affect society as a
whole.
The trends are linked with the economy and with the
industrial sector
and
also
have
implications for the emergence
of conflicts in areas where immigration and cultural differ-
ences are rampant. Some implications for the library and in-
dustry
are also
given.
Population growth
In so far as population growth is concerned, less developed
countries (LDCs) as a group are expected to experience a
much
higher
growth than
developed
countries,
where
popula-
tion growth is approaching zero. Developments in the LDC
regions themselves, however, differ remarkably. Population
growth
will decline
sharply
in
the
Dynamic
Asian Economies
(DAEs) which are catching
up
— economically as well as
demographically — with developed countries. The opposite
will be true for the Middle East and North Africa region, as
well as
for SubSahara Africa.
Due to the nature
of
the
process,
changes in population growth are very slow compared to the
underlying demographic indicators (e.g. fertility, life expec-
tancy,
working
patterns,
etc.).
UN
population projections for
1990-2015
indicate that the
world population will be
7640
million people in
2015.
How-
ever, the population growth in the 1990-2020 period will be
only
0.5%
below
the growth in the
1965-1990 period
(1.5%
v
2.0%).
In absolute terms, the population increase will peak
around the year 1997 when there will be approximately 100
million people per year
added to the
world
population.
A stag-
gering
95%
of the population
growth in
the period
1990-2020
will be in less-developed countries. This population growth
will result in an increasing need for food, a fast growth of
cheap labour supply and
a
migration
to
other
countries.
Each
of
these has its
own associated
problems.
Over
50%
of
the
world population
will
live in
cities:
it is
projected that there will
be 21
megacities
with
populations of
over
10
million
people.
But already megacities
like Delhi can
no longer cope with this amount of people looking for
jobs,
shelter and housing, a better life and placing an increasing
burden on the city's infrastructure and utilities and resources
(e.g. water, sewage, gas, electricity, roads, transportation,
communications, etc.).
New forms of city featuring extremely tall skyscrapers (1
km
high) will be in place by 2020 as efforts to solve some of
the overcrowding are intensified. Pyramidal cities of
up to
4
km
high
are
expected
in
Japan
by
the middle of the next cen-
tury.
Life expectancy
Life expectancy trends suggest that people will be living an
average
of four
years
longer
in 2015
than
in 1990 (six years in
the case of Japan and other parts of
Asia),
i.e.
with a life ex-
pectancy of
up
to 82
years.
In addition, in many parts of
the
world women have
a substantially longer life expectancy than
men. In the years up to 2020 there is thus likely to
be
a large
increase in the
number of elderly
people in
the
Western
world,
with
a
corresponding decrease
in
the number of people under
25 as the birthrate continues to decline in many developed
countries,
particularly
Japan.
The fastest growing segment
of
the
population
is the
80-90
year
group.
In
Asia,
South Amer-
ica
and,
to a
lesser
extent,
Africa, an increase
in young
people
is expected to
continue.
Japan is likely to become an elderly
nation surrounded by younger
nations:
25%
of
the
Japanese
population will be over
65
by 2025 (similar percentages are
projected for
Germany,
Sweden, the
UK and the
USA).
The changes
in
the
age
structure will have
a
strong impact
on society
as
a
whole.
In the
Western
world, for instance, there
will be more elderly people (a greater proportion of them fe-
male) with fewer younger
people
to take care of
them.
There
is also a growing
concern
about the
ability of pension funds
to
cope with the future demands likely to be made in an aging
society because of
the
smaller number of
contributors.
This
situation
is
likely
to be
aggravated
by the increasing
tendency
for
people
in the Western world
to
retire
ever
earlier
and
thus
discontinue contributing.
The
longer
people
live,
the more likely they are to
contract
some chronic disease or be bedridden. This will mean more
requests for long-term medical care which will obviously
have an
effect on
resources.
The size and nature
of
the
welfare
state will be a central issue in political controversies since
there will be heavy social costs in terms of pensions, health
care,
unemployment benefits and the like. The cost of the
welfare state will continue to
rise
since it is personnel-inten-
sive and thus less amenable to rationalisation. Furthermore,
the way in which it is
financed
also causes
conflicts
and
prob-
lems.
In an aging society new policies (possibly involving
moral dilemmas) will need to be formulated in order to set
necessary priorities for
the
allocation of
resources
and medi-
The Electronic Library, Vol. 12, No. 2, April 1994 75
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