The impact of alcohol consumption on homicide: A time-series analysis of three Nordic countries
| Date | 01 May 2020 |
| Author | Reino Sirén,Martti Lehti |
| DOI | 10.1177/1477370818802524 |
| Published date | 01 May 2020 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370818802524
European Journal of Criminology
2020, Vol. 17(3) 352 –369
© The Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/1477370818802524
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The impact of alcohol
consumption on homicide:
A time-series analysis of
three Nordic countries
Martti Lehti* and Reino Sirén*
University of Helsinki, Finland
Abstract
The article explores the statistical association between annual alcohol consumption and homicide
mortality in Finland, Sweden and Norway from the early 19th century to 2013. The results show
statistically significant impacts on overall and male homicide mortality in Finland and on male
homicide mortality in Sweden. In Norway, we found no significant impacts. The results suggest
that changes in the level of alcohol consumption have had a stronger impact on homicide rates in
Finland, characterized by a heavier drinking culture, than in Norway or Sweden. The strength of
the association between alcohol consumption and homicide levels seems also to vary over time
and to be conditioned by economic and socio-political factors.
Keywords
Alcohol, Finland, homicide, Nordic countries, time-series
Introduction
Alcohol has a prominent role in crimes of violence in many societies where it is a cultur-
ally accepted drug (Bye, 2012). Numerous studies at the individual level indicate an
association between alcohol intoxication and violence. For example, Bye’s (2012),
Rossow’s (2001) and Pernanen’s (1981) studies and reviews include extensive summa-
ries on this topic. Their main conclusion is that explanations of the connection are many
and very varied. However, the mechanisms of the connection have little relevance at the
community level (and, for example, on social policies) if the level of alcohol consump-
tion is per se a determinant of violent crime rates (Bye, 2012; Rossow, 2001). In this
case, the regulation of total consumption of alcohol would be a simple and efficient tool
for preventing violent crimes.
*Authors have contributed equally to this study and are listed in alphabetic order.
Corresponding author:
Martti Lehti, Institute of Criminology and Legal Policy, University of Helsinki, Unioninkatu 40, 00014
Helsingin yliopisto, Finland.
Email: martti.lehti@helsinki.fi
802524EUC0010.1177/1477370818802524European Journal of CriminologyLehti and Sirén
research-article2018
Article
Lehti and Sirén 353
Cross-sectional evidence for this hypothesis is contradictory. This also applies to the
most aggravated type of human violence – homicides. Globally, absolute alcohol con-
sumption levels seem not to have any link with differences in regional homicide rates
(Lappi-Seppälä and Lehti, 2015). In Europe, however, factors related to drinking pat-
terns seem to influence regional differences in homicide rates. The regions where binge
drinking dominates consumption often have a closer association between violent crime
and alcohol drinking than the regions where alcohol is consumed mainly in the context
of meals (Bye, 2008; Pridemore, 2002; Rossow, 2001). An ideal place to search for an
association between total consumption and homicide rate levels would be a region where
alcohol is a generally accepted drug and where overall homicide rates are low; that is,
where alcohol could potentially influence levels of interpersonal violence and, at the
same time, where the influence of other possible factors is probably moderate or even
negligible. Thus, Europe would be a good place in which to search for such an associa-
tion. On the continent, alcohol is a culturally accepted drug and is widely consumed by
all population groups; on the other hand, European homicide rates are today extraordi-
narily low in the global context (Lappi-Seppälä and Lehti, 2015). Even a weak statistical
association between alcohol consumption and homicide rates would probably be easier
to find in Europe than in other parts of the world.
The association observed in earlier studies in Europe seems to be related not directly
to consumption levels but mainly to drinking patterns. Alcohol and homicidal crime
seem to have the closest association in countries belonging to the so-called vodka zone
in the northern and the eastern parts of the continent where binge drinking and hard liq-
uors have historically characterized alcohol consumption. In this region, the closeness of
the association seems to apply to countries with both low and high overall homicide rates
(Bye, 2008; Pridemore, 2002; Rossow, 2001).
Three Nordic countries – Finland, Norway and Sweden – have historically been part
of the vodka zone and have had a high percentage of homicides perpetrated in situations
involving the drinking of alcohol. They are also among the European countries with long
and relatively reliable statistical data series on annual alcohol consumption, perpetrated
homicides and resident population. From all three Nordic countries, we have scattered
statistical data on the intoxication of homicide offenders from the 18th century onwards.
During the last two centuries, the role of alcohol in homicides has not been constant in
any of the three. The percentage of intoxicated offenders has varied in Norway between
40 and 75 percent (Bye 2012; Drap i Norge, 2010; Nasjonal drapsoversikt 2013, 2014),
in Sweden between 40 and 70 percent (Granath et al., 2011; Jansson, 1998; Kaspersson,
2000; Lenke, 1990; Lindqvist, 1986; Rying, 2000), and in Finland between 60 and 80
percent (Kivivuori and Lehti, 2011; Lehti, 2001, 2017; Lehti and Kivivuori, 2011). On
the other hand, the variation in the percentage of alcohol-related homicides seems to
have been similar in all three countries. The highest percentages have coincided with
periods of relatively high homicide rates and the lowest with periods of low homicide
rates (Kivivuori and Lehti, 2011). This indicates that the rates of alcohol-related homi-
cides have been more volatile than homicide rates on average and may have played a role
in the variations in the overall homicide rate.
The large relative and absolute numbers of alcohol-related homicides probably explains
why a considerable part of the global research into the community-level association
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