The impact of climate variability on children: The recruitment of boys and girls by rebel groups
| Published date | 01 July 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221082120 |
| Date | 01 July 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
The impact of climate variability
on children: The recruitment of boys
and girls by rebel groups
Zorzeta Bakaki
Department of Government, University of Essex
Roos Haer
Institute of Political Science, Leiden University
Abstract
Environmental changes place severe pressure on individuals and societies. Vulnerable segments of the population,
especially children, are likely to be first affected. We examine the impact of climate variability on the recruitment of
children by rebel groups during conflict. We argue that changes in climate patterns increase both the supply of
children willing to work as soldiers and rebel groups’ demand for them. To empirically examine this association, we
combine global data on temperature and precipitation shocks with information on child soldier recruitment by rebel
groups. Our findings suggest that climate variability shapes child soldier recruitment in systematic and significant
ways. Additionally, we show that this relationship is not gender-neutral: it has a strong impact on the level of girls
recruited by rebel groups. This research has important implications for our understanding of how climate variability
can influence conflict dynamics, how environmental changes may worsen the circumstances of the most vulnerable
individuals of conflict-affected societies, and how a non-gender-neutral effect of climate change may materialize.
Keywords
armed conflict, child soldiering, climate variability, gender, rebel groups
Introduction
Changes in the global climate are one of the biggest
global threats of the century (Xu et al., 2012). Tem-
perature is likely to increase, rainfall patterns will
change, sea levels will rise, and extreme weather events
will become more frequent (IPCC, 2014). Children
will especially bear the brunt of these changes. The
United Nations International Children’s Emergency
Fund (UNICEF) estimates that 256 million more chil-
dren will suffer from malnourishment because of cli-
mate change, with a further 100 million suffering from
food insecurity (Harvey, 2013). The World Health
Organization (WHO) suggests that climate change
contributed to more than 150,000 deaths worldwide
in 2000 alone (McMichael & Butler, 2004), and more
than 88% of this burden occurred in children under
the age of five years (Sheffield & Landrigan, 2010).
Studies examining the effect of changes in climate on
children focus almost exclusively on two issues: how it
affects children’s physical health (malnutrition, diarrheal
disease, or malaria) and how it influences children’s edu-
cational attainment (e.g. Kousky, 2016; Groppo &
Kraehnert, 2017). Furthermore, these studies concen-
trate on how climatic changes influence children in
peaceful societies, thereby neglecting the fact that con-
flict could greatly exacerbate the effects of climate varia-
bility on children (Hanna & Oliva, 2016).
In this study, we open an important research area and
analyze how change in climatic conditions can affect
children living in conflict-affected areas. More precisely,
Corresponding author:
zbakak@essex.ac.uk
Names ordered alphabetically and equal authorship implied.
Journal of Peace Research
2023, Vol. 60(4) 634–648
ªThe Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433221082120
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