The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russia
| Author | Alexander Titov |
| Published date | 01 June 2022 |
| Date | 01 June 2022 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058221108783 |
32 POLITICAL INSIGHT • JUNE 2022
One country which did not
expect the war with Ukraine
was Russia itself. For months,
Western warnings of an
imminent invasion were dismissed by
Russian officials and the general public
alike.
So, when the invasion did happen on
24 February 2022, both the Russian public
and elites were caught completely off their
guard. The authorities framed the invasion
as a limited ‘special operation’ (the word
‘war’ being proscribed from public use).
Yet, as the initial plan of a swift victory over
Ukraine failed and the extent of economic
sanctions from the West have exceeded
the worst expectations, the question
now is how the war will impact Russia
domestically.
There are four factors which will shape
Russia’s domestic politics in the immediate
future. First, is the conduct of the success
or failure of the military campaign. Second,
is the economic fallout of the war and
the sanctions. Third, is the elites’ response
to the crisis. The final factor is how the
population at large will react to the fallout
from the war. The home front will likely
be at least as important for determining
the way Russia will come out of this self-
inflicted crisis as its success or failure on
the battlefield.
The Impact of the
Ukraine War on Russia
Vladimir Putin has been roundly condemned for his invasion of
Ukraine, but at home in Russia the President remains firmly in
control, writes Alexander Titov.
Economy
Russia has been under some form of
Western sanction since the annexation
of Crimea in 2014. This has allowed it to
prepare for a wide range of sanctions, not
least in finance. What it did not prepare
for is the scale and swiftness of Western
sanctions, including the freezing of the
Russian Central Bank assets held in the
West and a de facto trade embargo in key
sectors.
Yet, the Russian economy has not
collapsed. The rouble stabilised through
emergency measures, the panic passed,
and the interest rates were lowered from a
high of 20 per cent. The Russian budget is
designed to break even at $47 per barrel;
even with the current discount for Russian
oil, it runs a surplus. With the Russian oil
firms looking for new markets in China and
India, it is unlikely to lose all oil and gas
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Political Insight June 2022.indd 32Political Insight June 2022.indd 32 01/06/2022 11:4901/06/2022 11:49
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