The importance of conflict characteristics for the diffusion of international mediation
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343316628827 |
| Author | Tobias Böhmelt |
| Published date | 01 May 2016 |
| Date | 01 May 2016 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
The importance of conflict characteristics
for the diffusion of international mediation
Tobias Bo
¨hmelt
Department of Government, University of Essex & Center for Comparative
and International Studies (CIS) and Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH Zurich
Abstract
This article argues that similar conflict characteristics form links between crises, which signal the relevant actors – that
is, the belligerents and the potential mediator(s) – that a comparable approach in terms of third-party mediation
could be suitable across these disputes – even if the relevant parties are not the same. Specifically, demand (antago-
nists) and supply-side actors (mediators) are likely to employ the heuristic of learning from and emulating the
mediation behavior in similar crises. The empirical analysis, using data from the International Crisis Behavior
project, shows that comparable patterns in violence, arguably the most visible and salient conflict characteristic, are
associated with mediation traveling across crises; other dispute characteristics incorporated into spatial lags are not,
however. Hence, particularly as domestic/unit-level (monadic) influences are controlled for, the effect of common
exposure is taken into account, and different estimation strategies are used, the results emphasize that there is a
genuine diffusion process via common levels of violence in the context of international mediation.
Keywords
crisis characteristics, diffusion, international mediation, spatial dependency
Introduction
If the belligerents in a crisis cannot find a peaceful solu-
tion themselves, international mediation is a frequently
used tool.
1
Mediation is driven by both demand and
supply (Beardsley & Greig, 2009), and the existing lit-
erature identifies several associated factors that influence
a conflict’s chances to see mediation (e.g. Greig, 2005;
Greig & Regan, 2008; Wallensteen & Svensson, 2014).
However, this work largely focused on ‘domestic’ or
‘unit/crisis-specific’ determinants, that is, monadic fac-
tors such as the belligerents’ level of democracy. Argu-
ments for ‘trans-unit’ influences (i.e. mechanisms
suggesting that characteristics of one conflict influence
the chances of mediation in another) have largely been
neglected. Do such trans-unit influences exist?
The policy diffusion literature emphasizes that actors
in one national context may be influenced by actors in
other states (e.g. Elkins & Simmons, 2005; Gilardi,
2012). I correspondingly argue that, in their search for
an effective strategy to end a conflict, conflict parties
(demand side) and/or the potential mediator (supply
side) learn from and emulate other similar crises. Focus-
ing on similarity as a link between two crises iand jis a
useful heuristic, helping the actors on both the demand
and supply sides to make difficult decisions under uncer-
tainty. Thus, transnational links to other crises – in the
1
The data I employ focus on crises, which are defined according to
three criteria (Brecher & Wilkenfeld, 2010: 12): th ere must be a
threat to a state’s basic values, there is a heightened risk of military
action, and there is only a finite time horizon in which a state can
respond. I use the terms ‘crisis’, ‘dispute’, and ‘conflict’
interchangeably. Finally, Bercovitch, Anagnoson & Wille (1991: 8)
define mediation as ‘a process of conflict management where
disputants seek the assistance of, or accept an offer of help from, an
individual, group, state, or org anization to settle their confl ict or
resolve their differences without resorting to physical force or
invoking the authority of the law’.
Corresponding author:
tbohmelt@essex.ac.uk
Journal of Peace Research
2016, Vol. 53(3) 378–391
ªThe Author(s) 2016
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343316628827
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