The J‐shaped distribution of citedness
| Date | 01 August 2002 |
| Pages | 383-395 |
| Published date | 01 August 2002 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/00220410210431118 |
| Author | Jeppe Nicolaisen |
| Subject Matter | Information & knowledge management,Library & information science |
The J-shaped
distribution of
citedness
383
Journal of Documentation,
Vol. 58 No. 4, 2002, pp. 383-395.
#MCB UP Limited, 0022-0418
DOI 10.1108/00220410210431118
Received 28 August 2001
Revised 28 January 2002
Accepted 14 March 2002
The J-shaped distribution of
citedness
Jeppe Nicolaisen
Department of Information Studies, Royal School of Library and
Information Science, Copenhagen, Denmark
Keywords Statistics, Libraries, Information
Abstract A new approach for investigating the correlation between research quality and
citation counts is presented and applied to a case study of the relationship between peer
evaluations reflected in scholarly book reviews and the citation frequencies of reviewed books.
Results of the study designate a J-shaped distribution between the considered variables,
presumably caused by a skewed allocation of negative citations. The paper concludes with
suggestions for further research.
Introduction
We know that scientists differ significantly in productivity and scientific
influence. Lotka (1926) observed that the productivity distribution of scientists
is extremely skewed, and formulated his well-known inverse square law,
stating that the number of scientists producing npapers is roughly
proportional to 1/n
2
. Citedness has not been subject to the same inspection as
scientific productivity, but available studies are nevertheless indicating that
distributions of citations to scientific papers may be as skewed as productivity
distributions (Seglen, 1992). Studies of the predictive validity of citation
analysis have tested the hypothesis that works with high citation frequencies
are valuated more positively than others with lower citation frequencies, and
the aim of these previous examinations has consequently been to demonstrate
the existence of a linear relationship between research quality and citation
counts. But the majority of studies focussing on the quality of documents have
only been able to report low to moderate findings of linear correlation, which
leads Bornstein (1991) to the conclusion that:
If a relationship between citation frequency and research quality does exists, this relationship
is not likely to be linear. The relationship between research quality and citation frequency
probably takes the form of a J-shaped curve, with exceedingly bad research cited more
frequently than mediocre research (e.g. as an example of an idea or line of research that
turned out to be a blind alley, or as an example of what not to do in a particular area).
Cronin and Overfelt (1994) have actually demonstrated the existence of a
J-shaped relationship between researchers' salaries and the number of times
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The author gratefully acknowledges the help and support of Professor Peter Ingwersen who
supervised an earlier version of this paper. Also many thanks to all of the participants from the
Nordic PhD-course in Bibliometrics 2001 for their productive comments on earlier drafts.
Finally the author would like to thank three anonymous referees for their constructive critique
and suggestions.
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