The New Russia in the New Asia
| Author | Stephen Blank |
| Published date | 01 December 1994 |
| DOI | 10.1177/002070209404900407 |
| Date | 01 December 1994 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
STEPHEN
BLANK
The
new
Russia
in
the
new
Asia
I
In
Asia,
the Cold
War
was
about
containing
Soviet
power.
Today
it
seems
that
the
West,
especially
the
United
States,
has
forgot-
ten
about
the
impact
of
Russia's
Asian
presence.
Neither
the
Bush
nor
the Clinton
administration
has
mentioned
Russia
in
the
Asian
context
in
policy
statements,
and
scholars
writing
on
United
States policy
in
Asia
or
on
Asian
security
issues
often
make
the
same
mistake.
Not
so
Russian
policy-makers,'
though
it
is
generally
acknowledged
that
the
failure
of
Russia
(and
the
USSR)
to
bring
its
full
potential
to
bear
in
Asia lies
at
the
root of
this
neglect.
Russia's
role in
Asia
does
not
live
up
to
its
economic
potential,
and
current
domestic
economic
conditions
inhibit
more serious
links with
Asia.
Russia
still
stands
apart
from
Asia's
amazing
dynamism.
But
no
account
of
Asian
prospects
which
ignores
Russia's
potential and
its
unique
realities
can
do
justice
to
either
subject.
It
is
not
that
Russia's
government
and
political
class
have
ignored
the
Asian
connection.
Political
struggles
in
1992-3
over
foreign
policy revolved
around
whether
the
government
took
Professor
of
Russian
Studies,
Strategic Studies
Institute, United
States
Army
War
College,
Carlisle
Barracks,
PA.
The
views
expressed
here
do not
in
any
way
represent
those
of
the
United
States
Army,
the
Department
of
Defense,
or
the
United
States
government.
See,
for
example,
Vladimir
Ivanov,
'The
emerging
national
security
doctrine
of
a
new
Russia,' Korean
Journal
of
Defense
Analysis
5(summer
1993), 169-79.
International
Journal
XLIX
AUTUMN
1994
IN
THE
NEW ASIA
875
sufficient
account
of
Russia's
interests
in
Asia,
not
whether
those
interests
existed.
From
Boris
Yeltsin
on
down,
political figures
supported
the
enhancement
of
Russia's
position
and
national
interests
in
Asia.2
The
problem
arises
in
choosing
between
two
fundamental
and
largely
incompatible
approaches
to
Russia's
overall
foreign
policy
posture
and
to
its
position on
the
Asia-Pacific
region:
the
militarized
and
the
economic.
Two
articles
in
the
Russian
press
exemplify
the
rival
approaches.
In
the
first,
Admiral
Igor
Kasa-
tonov,
the
first
deputy
commander-in-chief
of
the
Russian
navy,
stated
that
nuclear
dumping
would
continue
in
the
Sea
of
Japan,
a
mere
200
miles
from
the Japanese
coast.
Kasatonov
believed
this
routine
activity
would
continue
because
he
viewed
Prime
Minister
Viktor
Chernomyrdin's
ban on
this
activity
as
'a
purely political
move
...
to
please
Japan
...
the
government
will
soon
give
permission for
another
dumping
of
radioactive
waste.'3
The
economic
approach
to
Asia
can
be
found
in
a
Radio
Vladivostok
transmission
of
21
October
1993:
'Shinichi
Kobay-
ashi,
deputy general
director
of Japan's
development institute,
made
a
sensational
statement
during
his
visit
to
Vladivostok.
According
to
him,
the
Tumen
River
project
that
has
caused
such
a
stir
was
proposed
by
some
UN
specialists who
failed
to
take
Russian
interests
in
the
Asia-Pacific
region
into
account,
and
thus
it
has
no
future.
He
also
said
that Japan
was
willing
to
propose
a
more
acceptable
project
which
would
turn
Vladivos-
tok
into
a
pillar
of
Russian
integration
on
the
Pacific
coast.'4
The
disparity
between these
views
is
not
merely
that
the military
approach
brusquely
offends
Japan
while
the economic
approach
promotes
unprecedented
Russo-Japanese
efforts
towards
greater
regional
integration.
The
differences
go
much
deeper
and
have
profound
significance for
Russia
in
Asia.
2
Stephen
Blank, 'Diplomacy
at
an
impasse:
Russia
and
Japan
in
a
new
Asia,'
ibid,
141-6.
3
'Military said
ready
for
further dumping
at
sea,'
Foreign Broadcast
Informa-
tion
Service
(hereafter
FBis)/Central
Eurasia,
93-210,
2
November
1993,
14-
15.
4
'Japan
presents
alternative
to
Tumen
River
project,'
ibid,
15.
876
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
First,
Kasatonov's
statement
came
as
a
'complete
surprise'
to
Foreign
Ministry
officials.5
His
confidence
in
dismissing his
government's
policy
illustrates
a
fundamental
structural
crisis in
Russian
security policy.
The
armed
forces
may
be
under
the
operational
control
of
commanders;
but
commanders,
officers,
and
troops
are
by
no
means
under
the
control
of
the
govern-
ment.
6
Although
concern
over
this
situation
has
been
linked
largely
to
its
effect
on
events
in
Europe
or
the
Caucasus,
its
implications
are
no
less
important
for
Asia.
Kasatonov's
remarks
may
also
have
been
part
of
a
deeper
political
campaign
by
mil-
itary
elements
to
undo
the
positive
results
of
Yeltsin's
October
1993
visit
toJapan.7
They
certainly
indicate
continued
interven-
tion
in
politics
by
members
of
the
armed
forces.
Throughout
1992-3
the
armed
forces
successfully
and
pub-
licly
intervened
in discussions over
the
fate
of
the
southern
Kurile
Islands,
the
central question
in
relations
with
Japan.
(Japan
calls
the
disputed
area
the
Northern
Territories,
a
term
Russia
shuns
for
obvious
reasons.)
The
military
mobilized
par-
liamentary
and
public
opinion
against
concessions
to
Japan,
using
arguments
that,
if
analyzed
carefully,
are
strategically
ques-
tionable.'
Their
intervention
helped
twice
to
postpone
a
Yeltsin
visit
to
Japan
and,
when the
visit
finally
did
take
place,
to
con-
strain
serious
discussions.
Yet
these
interventions
went
unpun-
ished.
Thus
encouraged,
military
hard-liners
have
continued
to
undermine
civilian
authority
and
official
diplomacy
while
con-
ducting
their
own
truculent
and
provocative anti-Japan
policy.9
5
'Ecology:
Russian
navy
intends
to
continue
dumping
radioactive
waste in
Sea
of
Japan,'
Current
Digest
of
the Post-Soviet
Press
(hereafter
CDP-SP)
450(
Decem-
ber
1993),
27.
6
Remarks
of
Pavel
Felgengauer
at
a
Conference
on
Russian
and
Ukrainian
Security
Issues,
United
States
Naval
Postgraduate
School,
Monterrey,
CA,
15
November
1993.
7
Leonid
Mlechin,
'Yeltsin
policy
torpedoed
in
Sea
of
Japan,'
CDP-SP
45(9 4
November
1993),
26.
8
Geoffrey
Jukes,
Russia's
Military
and
the
Northern
Territories
Issue,
Working
Paper
277
(Canberra:
Australian National
University,
October
1993).
9
See
the
articles
under
the
section
'Japan'
in
CDP-SP
4 5 (i 7
November
1993),
30-1.
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