The Observer: Good at Observing, Less Good at Influencing?
| DOI | 10.1111/1467-9248.00349 |
| Date | 01 December 2001 |
| Published date | 01 December 2001 |
| Author | Philip Cowley |
| Subject Matter | Article |
The Observer: Good at Observing,
Less Good at Influencing?
Philip Cowley
University of Hull
The 1997 British General Election appeared to show a clear-cut case of the media influencing
electoral behaviour. In an attempt to facilitate anti-Conservative tactical voting The Observer
published the results of 16 constituency-level opinion polls. The newspaper is frequently seen as
influential in determining the outcome in certain seats, where several high-profile members of the
then Conservative government were defeated. In fact The Observer appears to have had very little
impact in the seats it covered. Higher levels of tactical voting occured in few of these constituencies
than in comparable seats elsewhere, and changes in the share of the vote consistent with the paper
influencing the outcome are even rarer. In just one of the 16 seats covered by the paper is there
prima facie evidence of the claimed effect.
The influence of the media on electoral behaviour is one of political science’s hardy
perennials – much debated but seemingly never resolved. The British General
Election of May 1997, though, saw what appeared to be a clear-cut case of media
influence. On the Sunday before polling day two newspapers, The Observer and
Scotland on Sunday, published the results of the largest constituency-level opinion
polling ever conducted in Britain, as part of an explicit attempt to encourage and
facilitate anti-Conservative tactical voting. The Observer also published a list of
constituencies with instructions on how to vote tactically, ‘a service for those voters
whose first concern is to ensure that their local MP for the next five years is not a
Tory’ (27 April 1997).
After the election, The Observer made – and continues to make – great claims for the
effect of their polls. It has said that they had helped unseat several Conservatives,
including the Defence Secretary Michael Portillo. Echoing The Sun’s headline of
1992 (‘It Was The Sun Wot Won It’), The Observer declared ‘It was The Obs wot
won it’, and that it had ‘cost the former Defence Secretary his seat’ (4 May 1997).
The paper also claimed that its polls contributed to the downfall of two other
Cabinet ministers, Roger Freeman (who lost Kettering by 189 votes) and Tony
Newton (who lost Braintree by 1,451 votes).
Academic commentators also argue that these polls had some impact on the
eventual result. Nick Moon, for example, claims that in 1997 ‘many voters appeared
to have followed their lead’. He goes on:
My own constituency, St Albans, provides a good example of The Observer’s
exercise in action. St Albans had long been a Conservative-held
constituency, with the Liberals in second place. The Liberal Democrats
controlled the local council, but Labour had recently won many seats on
the County Council, and were gaining in support locally. It was not at all
POLITICAL STUDIES: 2001 VOL 49, 957–968
© Political Studies Association, 2001.
Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA
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